APLN Quarterly Nuclear Memo (July - September 2026)
As part of APLN’s 2026-2030 Research Strategy, the APLN Quarterly Nuclear Memo tracks, analyses and summarises nuclear developments shaping the Asia-Pacific security environment. These are grouped into four analytical categories:
- Disruptive (developments posing acute or immediate risks to the nuclear order and regional stability),
- Stabilising (steps that reduce risk or build confidence),
- Worrisome (trends that, if unchecked, could worsen the nuclear order),
- Dialogue-based (activities that involve two or more interlocutors).
The July-September 2026 quarter continued to mark the accelerated disruptive risks of the ongoing wars, compounded by eruption of other geopolitical challenges. The US-Iran negotiations made no headway, the US-ROK denuclearisation messaging was ambiguous, the US-Saudi Arabia civil-nuclear cooperation sent conflicting signals, and concerns over artificial intelligence-related risks dominated the headlines. Despite these global strains, notable bright spots appeared on the Asia-Pacific firmament.
DEVELOPMENTS AT A GLANCE:
Key developments to monitor in the coming quarter include the US strategic procurement and NNSA restructuring, the deployment of US space-based nuclear capabilities, the first Review Conference of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), 40th anniversary of the Rarotonga Treaty, US-Iran nuclear diplomacy, the expansion of DPRK’s key missile production factories, and nuclear force developments and modernisation by major nuclear powers, including the United States, China and India.
This Memo was prepared by APLN’s Senior Research Adviser Dr Manpreet Sethi, Senior Policy Fellow Dr Tanvi Kulkarni and Strategic Risk Reduction Fellow Hree P. Samudra. The Memo was designed and formatted by APLN’s Policy Fellow Ariel Phantitra Phuphaphantakarn.
The APLN Quarterly Nuclear Memo is a cross-cutting initiative of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network’s 2026–2030 Research Strategy. For questions or to suggest developments for future issues, contact the APLN Secretariat at apln@apln.network. We would sincerely appreciate your feedback or suggestions.
The opinions articulated above represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network or any of its members. The APLN website is a source of authoritative research and analysis and serves as a platform for debate and discussion among our senior network members, experts and practitioners, as well as the next generation of policymakers, analysts and advocates.
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