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At the beginning of 2025, a staggering 9,604 nuclear weapons were available for use globally – a number that continues to rise.

“This upward trajectory is expected to continue as countries modernise and, in some cases, expand their arsenals, unless there is a breakthrough in arms control and disarmament efforts,” said Hans M Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists at the launch of the latest edition of the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor last week.

In many respects, the outlook is bleak: the nuclear arms race is continuing apace, disarmament talks are non-existent, and the norm against the use of nuclear weapons is eroding.

If we continue down this path, a nuclear catastrophe – perhaps orders of magnitude deadlier than the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki eight decades ago, which claimed a quarter of a million lives – is all but inevitable. As John F Kennedy famously warned in 1961, “The weapons of war must be abolished before they abolish us.”

It is clear that our time is running out.

Amid increasing nuclear dangers, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is more important than ever. Adopted in 2017 and in force since 2021, it now has exactly half of the world’s countries on board as signatories or states parties. Last week, they met at the UN headquarters in New York for the third time to discuss the treaty’s implementation.

At the meeting’s conclusion, they adopted a powerful declaration rejecting the continued expansion of nuclear arsenals, dangerous nuclear rhetoric (which we hear every day now in Europe and beyond), and the flawed theory of “nuclear deterrence.” They also reaffirmed their “unwavering determination to address the existential threat that nuclear weapons pose to humanity.”

Too many people have become resigned to the view that nuclear weapons are a permanent fixture in our world. We must never accept that idea. Nuclear weapons were built with human hands, and they can be dismantled with human hands.

This is not a utopian dream. The fact that large geographic regions have been declared free of such weapons suggests that the entire world could one day follow suit. TPNW parties are leading us in that direction.

It is especially significant that the country presiding over last week’s meeting, Kazakhstan, once had more than 1,400 nuclear weapons on its territory and relinquished them all. South Africa, which will take up the reins for the next meeting to be held in 2026, has also shown that disarmament is possible by dismantling its nuclear arsenal developed during the Apartheid era.

There are no technical barriers to eliminating nuclear weapons, only political ones. With leadership and resolve, progress could be achieved very rapidly.

In challenging times like these, we might be inclined to lower our expectations, to temper our demands. But the higher the stakes, the more ambitious we must be. Indeed, historically, some of the greatest breakthroughs in the field of disarmament have emerged out of situations of crisis.

Our focus must remain on elimination, not simply extending the period of non-use of nuclear weapons, and we must insist that elimination be pursued not as a distant dream, but an urgent necessity.

TPNW meetings allow the nuclear-weapon-free majority to speak with one voice in denouncing actions that threaten our very survival as a species. They also serve as a gathering place for the global peace and nuclear disarmament movement.

More than one thousand representatives of civil society from 163 organisations participated in last week’s meeting. Of these organisations, 44 engaged with the TPNW process for the first time. Twenty-two parliamentarians from 13 countries – 12 of which have yet to join the treaty – were also present, and pledged to continue working to bring their respective countries on board this crucial treaty.

Throughout the week, we held more than 60 events covering a wide range of topics, from the role of art in the anti-nuclear movement to divestment from the nuclear arms industry to the impact of nuclear weapons on children.

Many events were also organised by and for people from communities around the world harmed by nuclear weapons. These included hibakusha from Japan and South Korea, as well as test survivors from Australia, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Ma’ohi Nui, the Marshall Islands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Eight decades after the first nuclear test in New Mexico and the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world is at a crossroads: either we continue down the path of increasing confrontation, militarisation, and proliferation – which is a one-way downward spiral to annihilation – or we choose the path of dialogue, diplomacy, and disarmament, and thereby create a future that respects the Earth and each other.

The TPNW is the path that most of the world is choosing to be on.

About the Author

Melissa Parke is the executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 for its work to prohibit nuclear weapons. She is also a member of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) and a former Australian Minister for International Development.

The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network or any of its members. APLN’s website is a source of authoritative research and analysis and serves as a platform for debate and discussion among our senior network members, experts, and practitioners, as well as the next generation of policymakers, analysts, and advocates. Comments and responses can be emailed to apln@apln.network.

Image: TPNW Third Meeting of States Parties (ICAN)