This is the sixth chapter of the edited volume External Stakeholders in the South China Sea.

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Dianne Despi discusses the Philippines’ view of the South China Sea disputes, representing the perspective of an internal stakeholder. She notes that “conflict escalation is possible, but not inevitable” from the Philippine point of view, given its direct stake in the South China Sea. She further highlights that different Philippine government agencies have their own assessments of potential escalation scenarios in the region. To avert escalation, Despi points to increased investment in the Philippine Coast Guard and the government’s diplomatic initiatives. Meanwhile, she underscores that steady capability development remains a priority for Manila’s efforts to prevent escalation.

Policy recommendations

Uphold importance of multilateral cooperative mechanisms and international regimes. Known as “stabilisers” and “legitimisers” of the international order, middle-power countries are known for their aspiration for a distinct role in international affairs, credibility based on soft power resources, coalition-building ability based on values and principles consistent with the existing international order, and governance capacity. Highlighting these strengths of its middle-power partners, the Philippines must work together with like-minded nations in upholding and strengthening international regimes to ensure a stable and peaceful South China Sea.

The Philippines, as ASEAN Chair for 2026, should make the promotion of openness, transparency, equality, adherence to a rules-based framework, good governance, and mutual benefit and respect for international law a major agenda item during its tenure. ASEAN has the capacity to bring the major powers to the table as dialogue partners, and it has played a significant role in fostering an environment of trust and mutual assistance in the region. Capitalising on its role as a convenor and agenda-setter, ASEAN may steer future conversations towards promoting openness, transparency, equality, adherence to a rules-based framework, good governance, and mutual benefit and respect for international law to push the negotiations for  the Code of Conduct (COC) on the South China Sea forward.

Strengthen existing joint strategic dialogues such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit, and the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus. The Philippines should also leverage its cross-regional dialogue partnerships with the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council for greater cooperation on global maritime safety and security.

Develop international regulations to guide behaviour in the shared maritime domain. One of the key priority areas underscored in the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific is ocean governance, in line with the related 2022 EU agenda. This builds upon the experience and expertise of EU nations on negotiating international frameworks for ocean governance, ocean sustainability, and ensuring safety and security at sea. This is a critical area for cooperation in pursuit of stability in the South China Sea, as these international regimes set guardrails to manage risks, prevent miscalculations, and ensure predictability in actions. Additionally, further implementing agreements such as the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) and improving the enforcement capacity of surrounding states should also be a priority for multilateral cooperation.

Cyber security, critical underwater infrastructure such as submarine cables, and the regulation of artificial intelligence could benefit from the development of international regulatory frameworks. The Philippines, as a beacon of international law and the rules-based order in the region, has expressed its willingness to participate in developing shared legal frameworks and cooperative enforcement over the aforementioned specific issues. This will require reinforcing the Philippines’ domestic institutional capacity and enhancing national awareness and discourse regarding critical maritime infrastructure, particularly for information and communications.

Encourage multi-level, multi-sector cooperation for maritime domain awareness. Cognisant of the fact that all operations at sea depend on sound decisions based on accurate and actionable information, there are in place robust maritime capacity- and capability-building partnerships between the Philippines and Japan, ROK, Australia, and various European nations focused on maritime domain awareness (MDA).

The Philippines should urgently develop a national maritime security strategy with mechanisms designed to improve coordination, accountability, and sustainability. This is also to ensure that the various capacity-building initiatives between national agencies and international partners are streamlined to maximize the impacts of new platforms, technologies, and techniques on the country’s, and eventually the region’s, MDA.

Create a comprehensive MDA framework to guide the activities of the National Maritime Center, which was designed to be the country’s information fusion centre vital to coordinating maritime security operations. Much of Philippine MDA activities are still state-centric and concentrated on specific agencies such as the Navy and the Coast Guard.There is a need to facilitate dialogue between and amongst sub-state and non-state actors regarding their roles in MDA, such as between local government units, universities and techno-scientific communities, civil society groups/organisations, and the business sector. All these can be orchestrated and implemented through

Pursue the indivisible goals of environmental protection, sustainability of marine resources, and safety of life at sea. Doing so may potentially create issue linkages, and thus, inroads for cooperation with China during diplomatic negotiations. These ‘low-hanging fruit’ are critical in addressing common security concerns in South China Sea, especially given the surrounding nations’ shared vulnerability to the detrimental effects of natural and man-made disasters, and environmental degradation. To this end, the Philippines should also build technical capacities for enforcement against irreparable ecological damage to the marine habitat, developing resilient coastal communities, and conducting marine scientific research geared towards the conservation of protected species.

This work was supported by a generous grant from the Heinrich Böll Stiftung East Asia Office in Seoul (HBS). All views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the official views of HBS, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, or its board, members, or other funders.