Can DPRK's Nuclear Progress Be Reversed?

4 Feb 2022 | APLN

4 February 2022

Dear Network Members and Colleagues,

The APLN team wishes you a very Happy New Lunar Year. This week we feature a new report by Anastasia Barannikova providing a detailed assessment of the DPRK’s nuclear history and motives for acquiring nuclear weapons. This paper is part of an ongoing project modeling nuclear use cases in Northeast Asia. We also share the latest activities from our network.

Regional Northeast Asia Nuclear Security and Nuclear Non-Proliferation from the Perspective of the DPRK

In the latest special report, “Korean Peninsula Nuclear Issue: Challenges and Prospects”, Anastasia Barannikova, Research Fellow at ADM Nevelskoy Maritime State University, criticises current approaches to resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.

She argues that the DPRK’s nuclear status has already been accepted as a part of the regional status quo which may have negative effects on nuclear proliferation in the region and beyond.

Barannikova argues that preventing further proliferation is more feasible than denuclearisation and should be prioritized over attempts to reverse the nuclear status of the DPRK.

Read Now (PDF)

This report is a part of a joint project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA) with the Nautilus Institute, the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA), and the Panel on Peace and Security of North East Asia (PSNA).

Last week, APLN published the project report, “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia“, assessing 25 hypothetical cases of nuclear use in a Korean or Northeast Asian conflict in 2025-2030, spanning the continuum from unintended to intended or deliberate use. The aim is to help leaders identify ways to prevent nuclear use and escalation by better understanding the processes that could lead to the first use of nuclear weapons.

Read Now (PDF)

The Nuclear Ban Treaty: A Transformational Reframing of the Global Nuclear Order
A newly published book on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons describes, discusses, and evaluates the normative reframing brought about by the nuclear ban treaty, taking you on a journey through its genesis and negotiation history to the shape of the emerging global nuclear order. The book was edited by APLN member Ramesh Thakur with contributions from other APLN senior staff and members, Tanya Ogilvie-White, Rakesh Sood, Manpreet Sethi, and John Carlson.

Prospects for Peace in the Korean Peninsula
On 2 February, APLN senior associate fellow Jessica Lee appeared on the WRC18 Podcast where she spoke about the current stalemate between the United States and the DPRK. Read more

How India can adapt to global geoeconomic churn
On 2 February, APLN member C. Raja Mohan wrote a column for The Indian Express where he argued that India needs to better integrate its financial, trade, technological, security and foreign policies. Read more

Strategic Studies in Pakistan: A Commentary
On 21 January, APLN member Sadia Tasleem wrote a commentary for the Center for Strategic and Contemporary Research on how to adapt the field of strategic studies the unique circumstances of Pakistan. Read more

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