THE CARTER CENTER

APLN member Tong Zhao writes on what Trump’s election means for nuclear policy between the United States and China.

Trump’s administration would probably place greater emphasis on responding to China’s nuclear buildup, with Chinese nuclear capabilities likely featuring prominently in any new Nuclear Posture Review. Trump might pursue a dual-track strategy: publicly demonstrating resolve to strengthen America’s nuclear capabilities while intensifying diplomatic pressure on Beijing to join arms control negotiations. While Trump may believe such assertive posturing could compel Beijing to negotiate, his advisors could be more skeptical of diplomatic success and more firmly committed to expanding U.S. nuclear capabilities. Some might even support resuming nuclear testing to demonstrate American resolve and deter Beijing.

Beijing appears to severely underestimate both the risk of a nuclear arms race and the importance of greater transparency and self-restraint in its nuclear policy as a measure of reassurance. If Washington begins expanding its nuclear arsenal, Chinese experts are unlikely to dismiss this as militarily insignificant or advocate for calm. Both nations risk knowingly entering a nuclear arms race.

The situation is further complicated by regional dynamics. Trump’s uncertain commitment to allies, combined with North Korea’s expanding nuclear and missile programs, could intensify South Korean deliberations about developing nuclear weapons. Should South Korea pursue this path, Japan would likely respond by either increasing its reliance on American nuclear weapons or considering its own nuclear deterrent—creating unprecedented security challenges for China. Given Trump’s history of engagement with Kim Jong-un and possible interest in renewed dialogue, Beijing may face a narrowing window of opportunity to help broker limits on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and preserve regional stability.

Read the full article here.

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