HANKYOREH

APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon points out that Trump’s second term will no doubt place immense pressure on South Korea.

Trump’s reelection is creating joy and grief in equal measures around the world. Zelenskyy in Ukraine and European members of NATO, as well as Palestine, Iran and their supporters, perceive a serious threat from the foreign policy pivot presaged by Trump 2.0.

Netanyahu in Israel and Putin in Russia are tickled pink by the prospect of another Trump administration. While China has made little response other than a brief statement from its Foreign Ministry, Beijing is obviously on edge over Trump’s return.

But how will Korea be affected?

We shouldn’t jump to conclusions about Trump’s policy for the Korean Peninsula. We’ll have to monitor the composition of his cabinet and who he picks as his advisers. There are likely to be three competing factions in Trump’s second administration.

First, there is Trump and his loyal confidantes, and the transactional attitude they espouse. These are the kind of people who emphasize advantage over values, who base all diplomatic relationships on a cost-benefit analysis, and who are willing to make diplomatic deals to achieve their desired ends.

Second, there are the devotees of Trump’s creed of MAGA, making America great again. Along with their loyalty to Trump, they’re strongly opposed to US intervention overseas and don’t want the US to go to war unless the national interest is severely infringed. This faction is strongly characterized by Jacksonian isolationism.

The third and final faction is the “neocons,” the hardcore wing of the Republican Party. Neocons support the use of force for maintaining American primacy and disseminating American values around the world.

While the transactional approach is likely to be the prevailing theme of foreign policy and national security in the incoming Trump administration, the interaction between these three factions will also be a determining factor.

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Image: Wikimedia Commons