NIKKEI ASIA

APLN member Kevin Rudd co-wrote an article with former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and argued that effective climate action would boost region’s economies and create jobs. Read the original article here.

The fate of our planet’s future lies in Asia. It is not only the world’s manufacturing workshop. It is also becoming the world’s biggest consumer, driven by the presence of the globe’s largest population and many of its fastest-growing economies.

Unfortunately, with this growth comes increasing pollution. Asia is already responsible for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions each year. So how Asian leaders decide to drive their economic development this decade will determine the world’s ability to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and create a healthier, safer zero-emissions future.

It should not be a hard choice. Science makes clear that pursuing net-zero emissions by midcentury will save lives, bolster energy security, prove an economic boon and help limit and build resilience to climate change impacts, including extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, torturous heat and premature deaths.

The Indo-Pacific’s current climate commitments, if achieved, would boost the region’s gross domestic product by 5.4% above predicted growth by 2030 and over 2% above baseline from 2050 onward, according to forthcoming modeling commissioned by the High Level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero convened by the Asia Society Policy Institute.

This would create 34 million additional jobs by 2060. Much of the growth would come from investments in decarbonizing the economy. This means greater ambition could lead to further economic benefits.

Now is the moment for Asia to grasp this transition and accelerate it. Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed Asia’s energy security to an inflection point that lays bare the costs of relying on international fossil-fuel markets. Countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are struggling with fuel shortages and oil price spikes while China and India continue to buy cheap Russian crude.

Furthermore, an earlier transition to locally produced and ever-cheapening renewable energy would be appealing to both consumers and workers. Renewables will reduce reliance on volatile commodities and create jobs across the value chain wherever plants are installed, from rural communities to capital cities.

Asia will offer the international political and policy platforms over the next year from which to lead this transition by example, with Group of 20 meetings set for Indonesia and India, a Group of Seven summit in Japan and the U.N. Conference of the Parties climate summit to take place in the United Arab Emirates.

To lead this shift, Asian countries need to cooperate on three core steps.

First, alignment. Asian nations must come together to speak with a united voice on their common interests. This has been done before, for instance in 1994 when Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders committed to reduce trade and investment barriers and promote the free flow of goods, services and capital.

A joint commitment to climate action can similarly boost the region’s economic and social prosperity. If delivered now while Asia is in the global limelight, it could also set the tone for other regions to follow suit.

Second, ambition. Most large Asian economies have committed to reaching net-zero emissions, but with varying timelines and levels of supporting detail. The Glasgow Climate Pact reached last year called on countries to revisit and strengthen their emissions reduction targets before the U.N. Climate Change conference planned for Egypt this November to keep the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. By doing so, Asian countries can attract more investment, maximize benefits such as jobs and energy security, and limit climate impacts.

Third, implementation. Asian countries must demonstrate political will by reforming policies and developing road maps to achieve their climate goals. This will de-risk investments and attract finance, technical support and other resources through initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships highlighted by the G-7 in June.

Asian leaders understand the urgency we face better than many because their region is already living in the era of climate crisis. This year, millions of people in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have felt extreme heat, which has caused power outages and pushed New Delhi to restrict wheat exports from India. Massive floods in southern China wiped out homes, ruined crops and shut down factories, while extreme heat in the country’s north and center caused roads to rupture.

Both the climate and economic data are now clear.

Three-quarters of the Asia-Pacific region’s economic output and half its labor force are exposed to significant disruption from climate change, according to Deloitte. With over 2 degrees of warming by 2070, Asia’s GDP would decline by 12%, or $96 trillion. Strong climate action, instead, could lead to a gain worth over $47 trillion by 2070, based on the same study.

If implemented in full, the Asia-Pacific’s current climate commitments could bring the region to net-zero emissions by 2056, according to the modeling we have commissioned. This will require investment and support of around $53.5 trillion across the economy, but the dividends are clear. Investments like replacing fossil-fuel power with renewables will generate jobs and production and will boost the Asia-Pacific region’s trade balance by around $500 trillion by 2060, thanks to reduced coal, oil and gas imports.

To help move things forward, the new High-Level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero is working with a team of former and current leaders from across the region to set out recommendations that will help elevate political buy-in for the policy and other strategies needed to seize the net-zero opportunity in the crucial years ahead to maximize the region’s economic gains and climate gains for the world.

We saw countries come together to build the Paris Agreement over several years. Asia must now stand ready to help turn Paris’ landmark goals into reality and keep global temperature increases this century within 1.5 degrees before it is too late for us all.

Image: Floodwaters sweep through the ancient town of Fenghuang in central China’s Hunan Province on June 4. Asia is already living in the era of climate crisis.  © AP