About Dr. Peter Hayes

Peter Hayes is an Honorary Professor for the Center for International Security Studies of Sydney University, Australia, and the Co-director of the Nautilus Institute in Berkeley, California. He works at the nexus of security, environment, and energy policy issues. Best known for innovative cooperative engagement strategies in North Korea, he has developed techniques at the Nautilus Institute for seeking near-term solutions to global security and sustainability problems and works to apply them across East Asia, Australia, and South Asia.

The first joint APLN/EAF Webinar, funded in part by the Asia Research Fund, titled “Preemptive Nuclear Attacks on the Korean Peninsula: Fact or Fiction?” was live-streamed on October 7th from 9:30-11:00 A.M. KST.

Moderated by Dr. Chung-in Moon, the webinar featured Dr. Morton H. Halperin (Senior Advisor to the Open Society Foundation and the Open Society Policy Center), Dr. Peter Hayes (Co-director at the Nautilus Institute), Dr. Siegfried Hecker (Professor and Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Center for International Security and Cooperation), and Dr. Eunjung Lim (Associate Professor at Kongju National University).

The panelists discussed military and nuclear issues on the Korean peninsula, with special attention paid to claims made in Bob Woodward’s latest book, Rage. The panel outlined the history of the U.S.’s nuclear doctrine and the DPRK’s nuclear capabilities, ultimately concluding that discussion of the use of “eighty nuclear weapons” on the Korean peninsula as the worst case scenario, albeit highly unlikely.

Finally, they warned of the risks of misunderstanding and mistakes that could escalate into a nuclear exchange. To prevent such a catastrophe, the panelists agreed that diplomacy needs to embrace a step-by-step confidence-building process, to make nuclear threats less necessary for deterrence or compellence on both sides.