| Last week, we published a special report from our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations authored by Kelly Grieco examining minilateral groupings in the Asia-Pacific. Sudarshan Shrikhande analyses naval competition in South Asia and argues for alternatives to confidence-building measures. We also co-organised a private side-event at the 2026 NPT Review Conference on nuclear safety and security and measures to reduce the risks of inadvertent or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons.
As always, we highlight recent activities from our network, including analyses on gender in national security, the role of middle powers in the world order, the consequences of Beijing’s nuclear buildup, and Vietnam-India relations. |
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Beyond Collective Balancing: A Typology of Asian Minilaterals and US Strategic Expectations
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Drawing on an analysis of 32 Asian minilateral groupings, Kelly Grieco observes that US expectations for Asian minilaterals are increasingly disconnected from regional realities. Rather than forming peer-based balancing coalitions against China, most minilateral arrangements in the region are shaped by geography, power asymmetries, and differing threat perceptions. The report concludes that the United States should work with the region’s diverse security arrangements as they exist, rather than pressure states into coalitions they are unlikely to sustain.
This essay is published as a part of APLN’s Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations, supported by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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Naval Competition in South Asia and the Limits of Confidence Building Measures
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Sudarshan Shrikhande argues that South Asia’s naval competition is deeply intertwined with the region’s wider geopolitical tensions, particularly India’s complex strategic rivalry with both Pakistan and China, examining how evolving maritime nuclear capabilities, emerging technologies, and the close China–Pakistan partnership could complicate escalation risks at sea. While confidence-building measures (CBMs) remain important, Shrikhande contends that regional stability ultimately depends on political restraint, clear rules of engagement, and reliable military communication during crises.
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Working Lunch on Nuclear Safety and Security and Measures to Reduce the Risks of Inadvertent or Unauthorized Use of Nuclear Weapons
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On 7 May, in partnership with the European Leadership Network (ELN) and supported by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), APLN co-organised a working lunch on nuclear fail-safe that brought together officials and experts to discuss nuclear safety, security, and measures to reduce the risk of unauthorised or inadvertent nuclear weapon use. Participants explored how emerging technologies may affect nuclear risks, considered unilateral and joint risk-reduction measures that the P5 could pursue, and discussed how the perspectives of non-nuclear-weapon states could be reflected in the NPT Review Conference outcome document. The event was hosted at the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations.
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APLN has over 180 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote for Foreign Affairs, analysing whether the US and China can forge a new framework to rein in competition and break the spiral. |
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| Maria Rost Rublee, Professor of International Relations at the University of Melbourne, provided evidence to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade as part of its “Inquiry into Equality as a National Security and Economic Security Imperative”. |
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| C. Raja Mohan, Distinguished Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University’s Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies, wrote for Foreign Policy, arguing that although middle powers can de-risk their relationships with the great powers by increasing cooperation among themselves, such cooperation does not necessarily translate into greater influence over a global order dominated by the US and China. |
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| Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), was quoted in the South China Morning Post, where she shared her insights on Vietnamese President To Lam’s visit to India. With both countries facing an increasingly assertive China, strengthening their cooperation has become an important priority. A key objective of the visit, she noted, would be to elevate the partnership in ways that deliver concrete defence capabilities and deepen cooperation. |
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