| This week, we asked six senior experts to reflect on what a second Trump Presidency would mean for the Asia-Pacific region. Karla Mae Pabeliña examines the South Korean nuclear debate from a Philippine perspective, and Stefanie Kam writes on how the Global Security Initiative reflects China’s growing focus on non-traditional security.
As always, we share recent activities from our network, analysis on the UK’s Strategic Defence Review, and the implications of Trump’s second term for South Korea, Southeast Asia, and US-China relations. |
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Trump 2.0 Presidency: Implications for the Asia-Pacific
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| In this APLN Pulse series, Frank O’Donnell, Tong Zhao, Tetsuo Kotani, Ji Hye Shin, Mely Caballero-Anthony and Sujata Mehta weigh in on how they foresee their country’s engagement with the United States over the next four years, highlighting rising nuclear tensions with China, potential strains on alliances in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty for India. |
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Criticise, Compartmentalise:
The Philippines Response to a Nuclear South Korea
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| Karla Mae Pabeliña analyses how the Philippines would react to South Korean nuclear proliferation. While the Philippines would likely follow UN-imposed sanctions, it would avoid unilateral measures due to its strategic ties with South Korea. She emphasises that, despite potential tensions, the Philippines would continue advocating for peace on the Korean Peninsula and promoting dialogue through ASEAN platforms.
This essay is the first in a series that examines the South Korean nuclear debate from regional perspectives. Click here to learn more about our project Nuclear Order in East Asia. |
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China’s Global Security Initiative:
A Shift in Non-Traditional Security or Strategic Influence?
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| Stefanie Kam explores how China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) advocates a comprehensive security approach that addresses non-traditional threats like terrorism and cybercrime through international cooperation, training, and mediation, ultimately advancing China’s geopolitical interests and extending its influence in key regions. |
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APLN has over 160 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, writes for Hankyoreh on the implications of Donald Trump’s second term for South Korea, highlighting key uncertainties in defence and economic relations. He argues that Trump’s transactional approach could strain the US-ROK alliance, with possible demands for increased defence contributions and a shift in the deterrence strategy against North Korea. |
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| Cathy Moloney, Deputy Director of Defence Strategy and National Security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), discusses the global strategic outlook, the UK’s Strategic Defence Review, and the impact of technology on the military domain with Malcolm Davis and Jim Hockenhull. |
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| Kim Won-soo, former UN Under Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, writes in the Korea Times that in South Korea the election was viewed as a referendum on the Biden administration’s economic performance, while internationally, Trump’s return signals a likely increase in protectionism and a retreat from multilateral leadership. |
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| Hoang Thi Ha, Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, argues that Southeast Asia is unlikely to be a priority in Trump’s foreign policy agenda, in an article with William Choong. However, the region will need to strategise its response to the President-elect’s trade and security stances, as well as his transactional approach. |
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| Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggests that Trump’s administration might pursue a dual-track strategy: publicly demonstrating a commitment to strengthening America’s nuclear capabilities while intensifying diplomatic pressure on Beijing to join arms control negotiations. |
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