The War in Ukraine and Russia's Nuclear Deployments
Weekly Newsletters

The War in Ukraine and Russia's Nuclear Deployments



11 November 2022

This week, we published a new policy brief under our “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia” project. Anastasia Barannikova argues that indirect repercussions from the Ukraine war on Russia’s nuclear weapons posture in Northeast Asia cannot be ruled out. And The Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament published three reports produced under our “China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma” project exploring ways to promote strategic stability and confidence-building among the three nuclear-armed states.

As the 2022 ASEAN leaders’ summit convenes in Cambodia, Hoang Hai Ha and Le Lena argue in their co-authored brief that ASEAN should bolster its collective diplomacy with other regional powers as the bloc navigates an increasingly bitter US-China rivalry in their region. Finally, we highlight our members’ activities.

Potential Implications of the Situation in Ukraine for Russia’s Nuclear Deployment in Northeast Asia

Anastasia Barannikova, Research Fellow at ADM Nevelskoy Maritime State University (Vladivostok, Russia), warns that we cannot rule out indirect repercussions from the war in Ukraine on Russia’s nuclear weapons posture in Northeast Asia. She argues that threats could materialize in the future that may see Russia revising its nuclear weapons strategy in the region, but for now, Russia’s role will most likely be limited to supporting China while responding to United States military activities.

Read the Policy Brief

This policy brief is a part of a joint project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA) with the Nautilus Institute and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).

APLN members and contributors recently published three new special reports in The Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

Salman Bashir, former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, examines the wider regional and global geopolitical entanglements of China, India, and Pakistan and the prospects for promoting regional stability and avoiding nuclear conflict. Read Bashir’s report.

Feroz Hassan Khan, a former Brigadier in the Pakistan Army, warns that strategic stability at the China-India-Pakistan trijunction remains tenuous. Read Khan’s thoughts.

Prakash Menon, Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, proposes a Global No First Use Treaty governing nations’ nuclear weapons arsenals in South Asia and beyond. Read Menon’s analysis.

Visit the Project Page

These three special reports are part of our joint China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma project with the Toda Peace Institute. The project is an effort to map the contours of China, India, and Pakistan’s nuclear relationship, identify drivers of conflict, and explore practical measures for nuclear risk reduction.

ASEAN Centrality and Regional Security in the Context of Great Power Rivalry

The 40th and 41st ASEAN Summits are underway in Cambodia this week. Hoang Hai Ha, Associate Professor at the Hanoi National University of Education, and Le Lena, Lecturer at Vietnam National University-Hanoi, assess ASEAN’s volatility and vulnerability and how the Association might best balance its interests in the midst of an intensifying US-China great power rivalry in Southeast Asia.

Read the Policy Brief

Averting Catastrophe: Walking the Talk on Nuclear Risk Reduction & Crisis Communication
16 November

The Institute for Security and Technology (IST) invites you to join a conversation on nuclear risk reduction and crisis communication with Dr. Tong Zhao, APLN board member and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, alongside Dr. Todd Sechser and Dmitry Stefanovich. IST Senior Defense Associate Leah Walker will moderate. The webinar will be held on Wednesday, November 16th from 10:00-11:00 a.m. EST.

Register for the Event

Is an Economic Security Alliance with US in Korea’s Best Interest?

Moon Chung-in, APLN Vice Chair and Sejong Institute Chairman, published a column in Hankyoreh and weighs in on South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s push for an “economic security alliance” with the US.

Hegemonic Competition beyond New Cold War

Kim Won-soo, Chair of the international advisory board of the Taejae Academy, writes for The Korea Times on the tense relationship between the United States and China. He argues that the hegemonic competition must stay within mutually agreed guardrails in order to avoid a head-on collision.

Sharif in China: How Are China-Pakistan Ties?

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy, and Technology, writes for The Diplomat on Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s China visit.

A Wary India Remains Caught between the US-China Geopolitical Contest

C Uday Bhaskar, Director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), New Delhi, argues that any substantive change in the US-China relationship will affect New Delhi’s security concerns and aspiration to maintain strategic autonomy.



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