| This week, we conducted our Suva Dialogue on Security in the Pacific and Asia, bringing together experts from across the Pacific Islands and Asia to explore how countries can collectively future-proof the wider Asia-Pacific region against shared security risks and challenges. Joel Petersson Ivre examines the implications of increasing nuclear salience in Japan and South Korea for crisis stability, arms race stability and arms control in East Asia.
As always, we highlight recent activities from our network, including analysis on challenges for multilateralism in the Global South, South Korea-US tariff negotiations, nuclear norms and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Pahalgam terror attack, and South Korean public sentiment on nuclear armament. |
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Suva Dialogue on Security in the Pacific and Asia
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On April 24-25, we hosted a meeting in Suva, Fiji, as part of our project on Voices from the Pacific Island Countries. The Suva Dialogue on Security in the Pacific and Asia brought together 20 experts from the Pacific Islands, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Asia to examine the impact of great power competition, increased militarisation, nuclear risks and climate change in the Asia-Pacific, and explore how countries from the Pacific Islands and Asia can collectively future-proof the wider Asia-Pacific region against shared security risks and current and future challenges. The project is supported by the Ploughshares Fund.
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Strategic Stability and Nuclear Salience: Japan, South Korea, and Extended Deterrence in the Third Nuclear Age
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Joel Petersson Ivre explores how Japanese and Korean understandings of strategic stability contribute to increased nuclear salience in East Asia. While both countries seek to keep the United States involved in the region, their hedging strategies differ: Japan prioritises keeping the United States engaged, while South Korea shows greater interest in credible alternatives to a significant US presence in the region. As nuclear salience rises in both countries, driven by alliance negotiations and regional threats, it risks undermining crisis stability, arms race stability, and non-proliferation efforts in East Asia.
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No Domino: How Japan’s Experience Can Dissuade South Korea from Going Nuclear
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Akira Kawasaki and Keiko Nakamura examine Japan’s potential response to a nuclear-armed South Korea and argue that the assumption of a domino effect – where South Korea’s nuclear armament would trigger similar actions in Japan and Taiwan – is overly simplistic. Instead, Japan’s experience in cultivating robust civil society resistance to nuclear weapons can be shared with South Korea to help prevent nuclear proliferation. Through dialogue and education, Japan and South Korea can advance a shared vision of security without nuclear weapons.
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APLN has over 160 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Marty Natalegawa, APLN Chair, wrote for The Jakarta Post, exploring the challenges and aspirations of the Global South and highlighting that the threat to multilateralism comes not only from the so-called major powers, but also from the inward-looking foreign policies of some countries within the Global South. |
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| Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, wrote for Hankyoreh and argued that South Korea should respond cautiously to Trump’s aggressive tariff demands and avoid rushing into a comprehensive deal, especially under an acting president with limited time in office. Rather than an all-inclusive “package deal,” a “de-packaged” approach is more likely to serve South Korea’s interests. |
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| Manpreet Sethi, APLN Acting Director, discussed nuclear norms, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), India’s policy and stance as well as the importance of dialogue, and the role of civil society members in bridging the gap between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states, in a conversation with Deepshikha Vijh. |
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| Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, wrote for The Indian Express on the recent terror attack at Pahalgam, in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, noting that it comes at a time when Pakistan finds itself increasingly isolated on the international stage. He argued that this is an act of desperation, which India must respond to with a cool head. |
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| APLN member Eunjung Lim, Professor at Kongju National University’s Division of International Studies, and APLN Policy Fellow Joel Petersson Ivre were quoted by Nikkei Asia on South Korean public sentiment on nuclear armament and the broader diplomatic and economic risks associated with such a move. |
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