| This week, Shyam Saran and Lin Minwang write on the recent Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS Plus summit and its long-term implications for India-China relations within the broader geopolitical context. As the UN General Assembly approved a resolution to establish a panel of experts to study the impacts of nuclear war, we revisited three reports from our Nuclear Weapon Use Risk Reduction project, focusing on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons use.
As always, we share recent activities from our network, analysis on the US presidential election, nuclear dynamics in South Asia, North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and more. |
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India-China Relations Regain Their Even Keel
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| Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, examines the recent Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS Plus summit, highlighting that China’s willingness to restore some border patrols and dismantle structures in Ladakh may reflect a more accommodating stance amid economic pressures. While this could help stabilize India-China relations, he argues that deeper issues, including differing perspectives on multipolarity in Asia, remain unresolved. |
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Have China-India Relations “Restarted”?
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| Lin Minwang views the recent China-India agreement on border patrolling as a significant turning point in bilateral relations. He argues that India’s reliance on the “American card” has been strategically costly and ineffective, prompting a return to a multi-alignment foreign policy. Against the backdrop of shifting geopolitics, the agreement reflects a mutual commitment to stability and long-term cooperation. |
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| Last week, the United Nations General Assembly approved the establishment of an independent Scientific Panel to study the physical and societal consequences of nuclear war. With tensions rising globally, this initiative is more crucial than ever.
At APLN, we have been working on a project that focuses on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia through our three-year collaboration with Nagasaki University’s Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA) and Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability. |
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| The Year one report explores the potential use of nuclear weapons between 2025 and 2030, focusing on scenarios involving a conflict on the Korean Peninsula or in Northeast Asia. It examines use cases for a (mostly) limited nuclear war, involving the DPRK, US, China, and Russia as the states to use nuclear weapons first. The findings highlight striking similarities across the use cases, emphasising that nuclear escalation is often driven by misinterpretation, leadership figures, and lack of communication. |
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| The Year two report focuses on adapting, developing, and applying methods to quantitatively estimate the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia. The fatalities and health effects due to six physical impacts of nuclear detonations were estimated: thermal fluence, firestorms, blast overpressure, prompt (or immediate) radiation exposure, radiation exposure from fallout, and cancer deaths caused by biological radiation. |
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| In the Year three project report, Van Jackson determines that Northeast Asia is a site of “nuclear precarity” and offers practical policy recommendations for avoiding nuclear escalation. These recommendations fall into three categories: warming actions (rhetorical and diplomatic gestures), ripening actions (individual restraint), and reciprocal transformations. |
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APLN has over 150 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Manpreet Sethi, APLN Senior Research Adviser, writes for Arms Control Today on the India-Pakistan-China nuclear dynamic in South Asia, examining changes from 1998 to the present. She highlights that the region remains prone to risk, with little chance for engagement on nuclear issues. |
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| Eunjung Lim, Associate Professor of International Studies at Kongju National University, was interviewed by Arirang News, where she shared her analysis on the implications of North Korea’s large-scale troop deployment to support Russia. She also examined the response from the US and NATO, exploring whether this development might accelerate Western support for Ukraine. |
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| Maima Koro, Pacific Research Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Adelaide, will be attending the Australia Institute of International Affairs National Conference on November 11-12, where she will discuss what Australia can expect from the region and how actors in the Pacific Islands view Australian foreign policy. |
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| Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), argued that Trump’s presidency may bring unpredictability, with each issue likely being handled in isolation rather than as part of a cohesive strategy, creating uncertainty for both adversaries and US allies. |
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| C. Raja Mohan, Visiting Professor at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, writes for The Indian Express on India’s engagement with President Trump’s second term, highlighting five areas of collaboration and challenge: economy, strategy, immigration, tariffs, and technology. |
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