| This week, APLN Senior Research Adviser Michiru Nishida reflects on Japan’s domestic nuclear debate and explains how the costs of nuclear armament outweigh its benefits for Japan. We revisit a report by Joel Petersson Ivre that examines how rising nuclear salience in Japan and South Korea affects crisis stability, arms race stability, and arms control in East Asia.
As always, we highlight recent activities from our network, including analyses on the future of the US-ROK alliance, the future of nuclear arms control, Pakistan’s nuclear command and reform, and more. |
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The Need for a Cost-Benefit Analysis for Nuclear Debate in Japan
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Michiru Nishida examines Japan’s renewed debate over independent nuclear armament amid growing concerns about the credibility of US extended deterrence and a deteriorating regional security environment. A strict cost–benefit analysis shows that nuclear armament would impose overwhelming diplomatic, domestic political, security, and fiscal costs, while failing to reliably close Japan’s deterrence gap in the near to medium term. Unless the Japan–US alliance fundamentally collapses, he concludes that strengthening extended deterrence and conventional capabilities remains a far more viable option than pursuing nuclear weapons.
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Strategic Stability and Nuclear Salience: Japan, South Korea, and Extended Deterrence in the Third Nuclear Age
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Joel Petersson Ivre analyses how contrasting Japanese and South Korean approaches to strategic stability are driving rising nuclear salience in East Asia. While both countries seek to sustain US engagement in the region, their hedging strategies diverge: Japan places greater emphasis on anchoring continued US involvement, whereas South Korea shows stronger interest in developing credible alternatives should US presence diminish. As nuclear salience continues to rise, these trends pose growing risks to crisis stability, arms race stability, and non-proliferation in East Asia.
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APLN has over 170 members from 23 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, was interviewed by Michel Duclos, during which he assessed President Trump’s recent tour of Asia, the current state of the US–China relationship, and the US–ROK relationship, and argued that South Korea should consider transitioning from an alliance-centric collective defence posture to broader collective security arrangements based on multilateral security cooperation regimes.
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| C. Raja Mohan, Visiting Professor at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, discussed with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar the rising political and societal pushback against immigration, underscoring the importance of prioritising the development of the country’s talent base as a more forward-looking response. |
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| Mely Caballero-Anthony, Professor of International Relations at Nanyang Technological University, argued in an RSIS commentary that, amid severe strains on global governance, regional and middle powers, including groupings such as ASEAN, can help shape a more stable and cooperative order through inclusive, rules-based frameworks that strengthen resilience and revitalise multilateralism. |
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| Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Programme and the China Centre of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke at a UNIDIR event on the future of nuclear arms control, where he assessed the current landscape and explored practical options for the future of nuclear arms control and the broader NPT regime. |
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| Rabia Akhtar, founding Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research at the University of Lahore, wrote for Pakistan Politico and observed that conflating political change with nuclear risk may narrow analytical space and reinforce stereotypes about Pakistan as an inherently unstable nuclear actor. |
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