| This week’s newsletter features our project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia. Launched in 2021, the project aims to identify ways to de-escalate tensions and avoid a nuclear conflict in Northeast Asia by modelling and analysing cases of nuclear weapons use. We are pleased to announce the publication of the final two papers in this series. Shatabhisha Shetty writes an introductory essay for the Special Section of the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, and Benjamin Zala analyses the growing nuclear-conventional entanglement risks in Northeast Asia.
We also share recent activities from our network, including analysis on the upcoming US presidential election, ASEAN countries’ strategies amid US-China competition, India’s foreign and security policy challenges, and more. |
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APLN Executive Director Shatabhisha Shetty writes an introductory essay for the Special Section of the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, discussing the findings and analysis from the three-year project between APLN, the Nautilus Institute, and RECNA-Nagasaki University. The paper highlights the third year’s contributing expert essays and the final year analysis including recommendations for narrowing the space for nuclear use through mutual threat reduction and situational risk reduction.
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In this report, Benjamin Zala surveys the growing nuclear-conventional entanglement risks in Northeast Asia as well as how entanglement is driving a new era of nuclear arms racing in response. Given the high likelihood of nuclear crises in Northeast Asia, he advocates for developing “crisis management interoperability” between allies armed with nuclear and strategic non-nuclear weapons, and stresses the need for a greater emphasis on assurance policies to complement the current focus on deterrent threats.
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| In the Year 3 project report, Van Jackson determines that Northeast Asia is a site of “nuclear precarity” and offers practical policy recommendations for avoiding nuclear escalation. These recommendations fall into three categories: warming actions (rhetorical and diplomatic gestures), ripening actions (individual restraint), and reciprocal transformations. |
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| Ulrich Kühn and Heather Williams make the case for a Behavioral Arms Control (BAC) framework between China and the United States to stabilise relations in East Asia. They outline three principles for engaging China and subsequently propose several possible arms control initiatives under a BAC framework. |
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| Lauren Sukin and Woohyeok Seo examine “nuclear anxiety” within the dynamics of abandonment and entrapment between allied states and the unique hub-and-spoke system in East Asia. They explore public concerns about nuclear deterrence and proliferation in Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, arguing that expanded consultations could potentially help soothe nuclear anxiety in East Asia. |
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| Adam Mount writes on the value of No First Use (NFU) in reducing US-China nuclear risks. He argues that although NFU declaratory statements are unlikely to directly affect the incentives of the United States and China in a future crisis, they can still play an indirect role in reducing the risk of nuclear use and help both countries avoid a nuclear war. |
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| Rabia Akhtar offers an analysis of the multifaceted challenges posed by nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia, including the good, the bad, and the ugly scenarios post-nuclear use and how nuclear weapons are perceived in the new normal. She recommends that policymakers must undertake substantive dialogues on arms control and conflict resolution to avert catastrophic nuclear events. |
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| On May 28, we hosted a webinar for our report on nuclear use in Northeast Asia. Van Jackson gave a presentation on the report findings, followed by a discussion with a panel of experts on how to pursue an effective, pragmatic, and holistic policymaking approach to avoid nuclear conflict. The event recording is available on our website. |
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APLN has over 150 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, wrote for Global Asia about the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the US-South Korea alliance. He argued that while it’s unlikely the US would change its foreign and national security policy toward Korea, domestic political chaos could erode American foreign policy and weaken the credibility of its security commitments. |
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| Eunjung Lim, Associate Professor of the Division of International Studies at Kongju National University (KNU), was quoted in Deutsche Welle, discussing the debate over nuclear weapons acquisition in South Korea. She argued that an independent nuclear deterrent in South Korea could trigger a domino effect in the region and undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime. |
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| Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, wrote a commentary in Business Standard that the installation of a new government is a chance to review economic strategies. He emphasized the need for India to recalibrate its economic approach, focusing on trade, manufacturing, and the informal economy. |
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| Elina Noor, Senior Fellow in the Asia Programme at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote for South China Morning Post about Malaysia’s strategies amid US-China competition, underlining that Malaysia is perfectly capable of securing its interests without choosing one side over another. |
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| Cheng-Chwee Kuik, Professor of International Relations at the National University of Malaysia (UKM), wrote for East Asia Forum about Southeast Asian countries’ hedging strategies, highlighting that it is currently the most logical choice for smaller powers. This approach allows states to maximize other goals while keeping their security options open. |
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| Frank O’Donnell, APLN Senior Research Adviser and Nonresident Fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, wrote for the East-West Center about the growing challenges Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs. |
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