This week’s newsletter is a special feature on the Nuclear Use in Northeast Asia project, a collaborative three-year initiative with the Nautilus Institute, the Research Center for Nuclear Weapon Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), and the Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA).

The project takes an ambitious and detailed look at the pathways to nuclear use in Northeast Asia. The project aims to educate policymakers on the risk of nuclear war, and the devastating consequences it would bring.

• Escalation is almost certain: A nuclear conflict based on regional issues could escalate to a nuclear global conflict within hours or days.
• There is no “restraint” in nuclear use: Any nuclear detonations, even in relatively unpopulated areas, are likely to result in at least thousands of deaths.
• Nuclear strikes can never be contained to military targets: Even when focused on military targets, nuclear detonations have the potential to kill hundreds of thousands of people due to long-term effects.
• Nuclear fallout cannot be contained to the area of conflict: Even third parties that are not initial parties to a nuclear conflict will face serious threats to their national security due to nuclear detonations in their neighbourhood.
• Nuclear planners cannot ignore the additional devastating effect of firestorms: Firestorms resulting from nuclear detonations cause greater damages than the direct physical and radiological impacts of the weapons themselves.

• Why does the nuclear use happen?
• Which state responds to nuclear first use with nuclear weapons and/or conventional forces?
• What and where are the targets of nuclear weapons in each case, and when does the attack occur?
• How are the first strikes and subsequent nuclear attacks carried out?
• How plausible is the nuclear use case, how significant are its impacts likely to be? 

The report found striking similarities among the suggested use cases, noting that nuclear use is likely to be triggered by misinterpretation, leadership figures, and lack of communication.

• NHK
• Nagasaki Shimbun
• NBC
• Kyodo News