| Dear Friends and Colleagues,
In November, Donald Trump was re-elected as President of the United States, a development poised to reshape American policy domestically and abroad. Russia escalated its war with Ukraine by firing a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM), raising concerns internationally. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accused the United States of stoking tensions on the Korean Peninsula, warning that the situation could spiral into a nuclear war. And India and China initiated the withdrawal of troops along their disputed border as part of their latest agreement to de-escalate tensions.
In response to these developments, APLN continued to work with its members and partners to analyse the implications for the Asia-Pacific. We invited APLN members Tong Zhao, Mely Caballero-Anthony, and Sujata Mehta, APLN Senior Research Adviser Frank O’Donnell, and senior experts Tetsuo Kotani and Ji Hye Shin to share their insights on the consequences of a second Trump presidency for the region.
We launched a new Nuclear Order in East Asia project, featuring three essays by Andhika Prawira and APLN Policy Fellow Elaine Natalie, Associate Fellow Karla Mae Pabeliña, and network member Enkhsaikhan Jargalsaikhan, analysing Indonesian, Filippino, and Mongolian perspectives on the dangers of South Korea’s potential nuclear armament.
As part of our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations project, we published two commentaries by APLN member and former Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and Chinese professor Lin Minwang on the India-China border deal and its implications for bilateral relations.
And in other publications, APLN member Vijay Naidu shared the reactions from Pacific Island countries to China’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, Stefanie Kam examined China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Danielle Lynn Goh emphasised the need for future COPs to adopt a stronger focus on the health impacts of climate change.
Finally, in cooperation with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and East Asia Foundation, we organised an expert workshop in Seoul examining Japanese and South Korean shifting threat perceptions and perspectives on strategic stability.
Thank you for your ongoing support of APLN and as always I welcome your feedback on our work. |
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| Kind regards,
Shatabhisha Shetty
APLN Executive Director |
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Trump 2.0 Presidency: Implications for the Asia-Pacific
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| In this APLN Pulse series, Frank O’Donnell, Tong Zhao, Tetsuo Kotani, Ji Hye Shin, Mely Caballero-Anthony and Sujata Mehta weigh in on how they foresee their country’s engagement with the United States over the next four years, highlighting rising nuclear tensions with China, potential strains on alliances in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty for India. |
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No Longer In Good Standing:
How Mongolia Would View South Korea Going Nuclear
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| Enkhsaikhan Jargalsaikhan outlines Mongolia’s options if South Korea were to go nuclear. While Mongolia would comply with any UN Security Council sanctions, its ability to respond constructively depends on a cohesive international response, and particularly a unified opposition from the UNSC. He warns that South Korea’s nuclear armament would weaken the NPT regime, destabilise regional security, and contradict Mongolia’s long-standing commitment to denuclearisation in Northeast Asia. |
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A Rogue Seoul? South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions and Indonesia-South Korea Relations
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| Elaine Natalie and Andhika Prawira argue that South Korea’s potential nuclear armament could significantly strain its relationship with Indonesia, a strong advocate of nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability. Such a move would destabilise the Asia-Pacific, undermine Southeast Asia’s Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, and potentially trigger a regional arms race. Despite their robust economic and strategic cooperation, Indonesia would prioritise regional stability and the integrity of the non-proliferation regime over its bilateral relationship with Seoul. |
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Criticise, Compartmentalise:
The Philippines Response to a Nuclear South Korea
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| Karla Mae Pabeliña analyses how the Philippines would react to South Korean nuclear proliferation. While the Philippines would likely follow UN-imposed sanctions, it would avoid unilateral measures due to its strategic ties with South Korea. She emphasises that, despite potential tensions, the Philippines would continue advocating for peace on the Korean Peninsula and promoting dialogue through ASEAN platforms. |
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India-China Relations Regain Their Even Keel
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| Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, examines the recent Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS Plus summit, highlighting that China’s willingness to restore some border patrols and dismantle structures in Ladakh may reflect a more accommodating stance amid economic pressures. While this could help stabilize India-China relations, he argues that deeper issues, including differing perspectives on multipolarity in Asia, remain unresolved. |
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Have China-India Relations “Restarted”?
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| Lin Minwang views the recent China-India agreement on border patrolling as a significant turning point in bilateral relations. He argues that India’s reliance on the “American card” has been strategically costly and ineffective, prompting a return to a multi-alignment foreign policy. Against the backdrop of shifting geopolitics, the agreement reflects a mutual commitment to stability and long-term cooperation. |
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| On November 28, APLN organized a workshop in Seoul with the support of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and East Asia Foundation. Experts discussed how Japanese and South Korean perspectives on strategic stability have evolved in recent years, how shifting threat perceptions influence new and ongoing proliferation challenges, and which policy solutions could address these issues.
APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon, APLN members Cho Hyun, Jun Bong-Geun, Eunjung Lim, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Masakatsu Ota, Mitsuru Kitano, Policy Fellows Joel Petersson Ivre and Fang Liu participated in the workshop. |
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| 13 November | Stefanie Kam explores how China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) advocates a comprehensive security approach that addresses non-traditional threats like terrorism and cybercrime through international cooperation, training, and mediation, ultimately advancing China’s geopolitical interests and extending its influence in key regions. |
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| 18 November | Vijay Naidu offers an overview of the Pacific Small Island Developing States’ reactions to China’s recent ICBM test. He observes that for the Pacific countries, the test was not a peaceful action; it reflected China’s belligerent intentions as a major nuclear power and brought back painful memories of past nuclear tests in the Pacific, raising fears of renewed militarisation. |
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| 29 November | Danielle Lynn Goh emphasises the need for future COPs to adopt a stronger focus on the health impacts of climate change, stricter commitments to phasing out fossil fuels, and greater ambition in transitioning to renewable energy. |
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