| Dear Friends and Colleagues,
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with repercussions for regional and global security. Meanwhile, recent reports by ICAN and SIPRI reveal a significant increase in global spending on nuclear weapons and a growing reliance on nuclear deterrence. These developments underscore the urgent need for arms control and risk reduction among all the nuclear-armed states, their allies and strategic partners.
Accordingly, as part of our Nuclear Weapon Use Risk Reduction project, we published three reports in June identifying opportunities for nuclear risk reduction in Northeast Asia. Adam Mount wrote that the debate on No First Use (NFU) provides insights into the evolving risks of nuclear escalation in a US-China conflict, and suggests that NFU declaratory statements can play an indirect role in reducing the risk of nuclear use and help both countries avoid a nuclear war. APLN member Rabia Akhtar analyses three potential outcomes in the post-nuclear world and urges policymakers to engage in substantive arms control and conflict resolution dialogues. Lauren Sukin and Woohyeok Seo survey public concerns and “nuclear anxiety” in Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
As part of our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations, we issued a report in June by Piper Campbell, former head of the US mission to ASEAN, where she offers recommendations on how the United States, Southeast Asian countries, and the broader Indo-Pacific region can contribute to promoting regional stability.
We also featured an analysis of the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone (SPNFZ) Treaty by APLN member Vijay Naidu, who emphasizes the importance of preventing the treaty from falling apart and ways to strengthen it. APLN Policy Fellows Tanvi Kulkarni and Elaine Natalie presented six key insights from our Voices from the Pacific Islands project in a synthesis report, and we held a webinar to discuss key project findings, exploring the interplay of climate change, nuclear policies and practices, and geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific.
As always, I appreciate your continued engagement and look forward to your feedback and suggestions. |
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| Kind regards,
Shatabhisha Shetty
APLN Executive Director |
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The United States: An Increasingly Incidental Provider of Regional Stability in the Asia-Pacific?
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| In the latest report from our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations project, Piper Campbell, former head of the US mission to ASEAN, argues that the United States is becoming an increasingly incidental provider of regional stability in Southeast Asia. Instead of being a deliberate and proactive leader in maintaining stability in the region, the US role has become largely peripheral, partly due to major shifts in US foreign policy thinking in recent years.
Campbell identifies three US priorities in Southeast Asia: maintaining economic access, ensuring freedom of movement, and not ceding the region to China. To achieve these goals, the report argues that the United States must do better in establishing mutual understanding with ASEAN countries and making commitments to regional stability. |
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East Asia’s Alliance Dilemma: Public Perceptions of the Competing Risks of Extended Nuclear Deterrence
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| US allies and partners in the region – Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – have seen a surge in “nuclear anxiety” among their citizens. To understand how this sense of nuclear anxiety informs and drives US foreign policy in the region, Lauren Sukin and Woohyeok Seo analyse the results of a survey conducted in June 2023, which looked at public perceptions of regional nuclear threats and how citizens seek reassurance in this threat environment.
Based on the survey results, Sukin and Seo determine that both abandonment and entrapment concerns shape public preferences, and US policy responses to nuclear anxiety should take both concerns into account. |
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No First Use Can Still Help to Reduce US-China Nuclear Risks
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| No First Use has its challenges: China’s ongoing expansion and modernisation of its nuclear arsenal brings its No First Use (NFU) policy into question, whereas the United States is unlikely to publicly commit to the declaratory policy.
In this report, Adam Mount argues that despite its limitations, NFU can still play an important role in risk reduction for two reasons: first, if the US will not publicly declare NFU, it can still pursue it in an internal policy; second, bilateral discussions on NFU provides the US and China with a platform for discussing nuclear risks and building greater understanding about one another’s nuclear doctrines. |
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The Political Reckoning in a Post-Nuclear Use Landscape
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| In this report, Rabia Akhtar offers an analysis of the multifaceted challenges posed by nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia, including the good, the bad, and the ugly scenarios post-nuclear use and how nuclear weapons are perceived in the new normal. She recommends that policymakers must undertake substantive dialogues on arms control and conflict resolution to avert catastrophic nuclear events. |
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Navigating Nuclear Legacies, Climate Change,
and Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands
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| In this project synthesis report, APLN Policy Fellows Tanvi Kulkarni and Elaine Natalie share insights from our work on nuclear disarmament and the Pacific Islands. They point out that a solutions-based approach must be adopted, going beyond identifying challenges to foster actionable strategies for Pacific security. Moreover, bridging the dialogue gap between Pacific Island nations and their Asian counterparts is crucial to comprehensively addressing shared nuclear, climate, and other security risks in the Asia-Pacific. |
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Strengthening a Nuclear-Free Pacific Region
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| In this report, Vijay Naidu argues that the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone (SPNFZ) Treaty is under threat due to intensifying geostrategic competition in the Asia-Pacific and names four developments that are significant sources of risk for the South Pacific.
Despite its weaknesses, Naidu says that the SPNFZ Treaty is an important part of the non-proliferation regime and must be protected. He concludes the paper with suggestions on how to strengthen the SPNFZ Treaty, including continually calling on the United States to ratify the treaty protocols. |
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[Webinar] At the Crossroads:
The Climate-Nuclear-Geopolitical Nexus in the Pacific
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| On June 19, we hosted a webinar on the findings from our “Voices from Pacific Island Countries: Nuclear Disarmament and the Anthropocene” project. The panelists discussed the interlinkages between climate change, nuclear policies and practices, and geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific. The full recording of the event is now available on our website. |
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| 20 June | John Carlson warns that the world needs urgent action to reduce the risk of nuclear war and establish a process to achieve nuclear disarmament. He discusses the victims of nuclear war, the legality of nuclear weapons under international law, the challenges of nuclear disarmament, and what the international community can do to pursue a world without nuclear weapons. |
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