As we close the first month of 2026, the contours of the year ahead are coming into focus: persistent challenges, but also meaningful opportunities for dialogue and cooperation.

This month, we launched a new research program on Disruptive Technologies and Nuclear Risks, beginning with a policy brief by Manpreet Sethi on how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can heighten escalation risks and why human judgement must remain central to nuclear decision-making. We also released a new edited volume exploring how middle-powers in Asia and Europe manage tensions in the South China Sea, offering a comparative analysis of escalation risks and strategies from the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic.

In the first APLN Korea Times column of the year, I urged Asia-Pacific states to spearhead proactive, coordinated action at the 2026 NPT Review Conference. Reflecting on the Doomsday Clock’s new record, now only 85 seconds from midnight, Manpreet Sethi warned global leaders to act immediately on arms control, highlighting accelerating nuclear, climatic, and technological dangers.

This month’s analysis extends to the legal ramifications of nuclear threats. George Perkovich calls for greater precision in defining nuclear threats, warning that vague discourse can amplify fear and invite manipulation. Monique Cormier and Anna Hood explore how international legal instruments govern such threats and their application over time. To further examine these findings and their implications, we are co-hosting a series of public webinars and welcome your participation.

Finally, we held our annual network meeting, bringing members together to discuss regional developments and review APLN’s research and policy activities, and are also delighted to welcome four new members to the APLN network this month, including Peter Woolcott, Xia Liping, Pradeep Gyawali, and Ralph Regenvanu.

We look forward to a busy year ahead and remain grateful for your continued support and engagement.

APLN is pleased to welcome four new members to our network:

• Ambassador Peter Woolcott (Australia), Vice-Chancellor’s Professorial Fellow at Monash University and Australia’s former Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva and to the Conference on Disarmament.
• Professor Xia Liping (China), Professor and Founding Dean of the School of Political Science & International Relations at Tongji University.
• Hon. Pradeep Kumar Gyawali (Nepal), former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Nepal.
• Hon. Ralph Regenvanu (Vanuatu), Vanuatu’s Minister for Climate Change Adaptation, Energy, Environment, Meteorology, Geo-Hazards and Disaster Management.

On 28 January, APLN held its Annual General Meeting of Network Members. Executive Director Shatabhisha Shetty presented the annual report highlighting key achievements from 2025, while Senior Research Adviser Frank O’Donnell introduced APLN’s newly approved 2026–2030 Research Strategy. This was followed by a network-wide discussion, where members shared insights on regional security challenges, emerging trends, and potential opportunities for collaboration.

Shatabhisha Shetty stresses that Asia-Pacific states must take a proactive role at the 2026 NPT Review Conference by demanding concrete risk-reduction measures, supporting nuclear-weapon-free zones, and coordinating positions to uphold the treaty. The Review Conference represents a critical opportunity to prevent further erosion of the nuclear order and strengthen global efforts to reduce nuclear dangers.

The Doomsday Clock’s move to 85 seconds to midnight signals an unprecedented level of existential risk, driven above all by escalating nuclear dangers. Manpreet Sethi argues that 2025 marked a particularly alarming turning point, as arms control eroded, nuclear brinkmanship intensified, and political leadership failed to stem negative trends. While the global nuclear order appears increasingly fragile, the 2026 NPT Review Conference is a rare opportunity for corrective action through renewed dialogue, restraint, and risk reduction.

In this special volume, experts from South Korea, Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the Philippines examine how countries in Asia and Europe assess escalation risks in the South China Sea and the measures they are undertaking in response. They identify several shared policy recommendations, including upholding the rules-based international order, supporting Code of Conduct negotiations, maintaining a naval presence to signal commitment to stability, and assisting littoral states in developing maritime domain awareness capabilities.

This project was supported through a grant from the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.

George Perkovich argues for a more nuanced framework for defining a ‘nuclear threat’ so that decision makers are able to distinguish between genuine nuclear peril and ‘nuclear noise’—empty allusions intended to manipulate public fear rather than signal a sincere intent to strike. He argues that the less precise our nuclear discourse, the more fear nuclear manipulators can elicit.

This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Monique Cormier and Anna Hood survey international instruments that prohibit nuclear threats, examining how they apply to threats issued by nuclear-armed states over time. They find that the existing rules are piecemeal, lack universal coverage, and face significant limitations. Strengthening these frameworks, they argue, is urgent if international law is to meaningfully project against nuclear threats.

This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

In collaboration with the Nautilus Institute and Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, we are hosting three seminars with the authors to foster global discussion. We invite you to join us: 

Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear “Threats” 
5 February 2026, 1:30pm EST | In person and online Carnegie Endowment, Washington DC, George Perkovich in conversation with former Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer. [Register here]

Nuclear Flashpoint? How Pakistan and India Manage Escalation
12 February 2026, 10:00am EST / 8:00pm PKT / 8:30pm IST | Online Speakers: Moeed Yusuf, Rizwan Zeb, and Rakesh Sood.
Commentators: Sitara Noor, Sadia Tasleem, and Manpreet Sethi [Register here]

Nuclear Threats and the Limits of International Law
23 February 2026, 7:00pm EST / 24 February, 1:00pm NZST | Online
Online Speakers: Anna Hood, Monique Cormier, and George Perkovich.
Commentators: Carrie McDougall and Paul Davis [Register here]