Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in Peril?
Weekly Newsletters

Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in Peril?

 

 



26 July 2024

This week, as the second Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2026 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference unfolds in Geneva, Marianne Hanson warns that the NPT is under severe duress and urges States Parties to take urgent action to fulfill their obligations and commitments. We also revisit Manpreet Sethi‘s recommendations to reinforce the nuclear non-proliferation regime, Nobuyasu Abe‘s special report on bridging gaps between the NPT and the Nuclear Ban Treaty, and Enkhsaikhan Jargalsaikhan‘s policy brief on expanding nuclear-weapon-free zones.

As always, we share recent activities from our network, including analysis on the South Korean nuclear armament debate, the upcoming US presidential election, Southeast Asia, the Global South, and more.

“Unfortunately, it will take a miracle in Geneva for this PrepCom to achieve any success. The current dynamics among member-states are dire and suggest that there might be little life left in the NPT. That would be a loss to international security.”

Marianne Hanson highlights the challenges facing the second PrepCom for the 2026 NPT Review Conference, noting increased tensions between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states, stalled disarmament efforts, and deteriorating prospects for a Middle East WMD-free zone, all of which threaten the NPT’s viability and international security.

Read the commentary

Manpreet Sethi elaborates on the three action points proposed by the International Group of Eminent Persons for a World without Nuclear Weapons (IGEP) to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime and uphold the NPT. These include reinforcing and expanding norms, taking concrete measures for nuclear risk reduction through transparency and strategic restraint, and revitalizing the treaty review process to improve accountability and foster dialogue between NPT and non-NPT states.

Read the commentary

In this special report, Nobuyasu Abe, former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs, highlights that the NPT has faced growing challenges and risks losing relevance, emphasising the need to bridge the gap between the NPT and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to push forward the common objective of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He offers six policy recommendations to restore the credibility and authority of the NPT, including closing the Highly Enriched Uranium for naval propulsion purposes loophole and strengthening IAEA safeguards with the additional protocol.

This report is a part of the APLN Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) project, which assesses the baseline status of and trends in vertical and horizontal proliferation of WMD across the Asia Pacific region.

Read the special report

In this policy brief, Enkhsaikhan Jargalsaikhan, former Permanent Representative of Mongolia to the United Nations, underscores the importance of nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) in strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime and suggests making the concept more inclusive by establishing single-state NWFZs officially, a move that Mongolia took with great success.

Read the policy brief

As the 2024 NPT PrepCom convenes, if you have any ideas, reflections, or insights you would like to share, please reach out to APLN Policy Fellow Tanvi Kulkarni at kulkarnit@apln.network. We value your contributions and look forward to hearing from you.

APLN has over 150 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.

See all member activities

Surveillance vs. Privacy | Debating the Ethics of Biometric Data Use

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy, and Technology, discussed the ethical considerations of privacy in the collection and use of biometric data, and explored the associated regulatory requirements.

You Can’t Have It Both Ways

Jun Bong-geun, President of the Korea Nuclear Policy Society, wrote for Korea JoongAng Daily and argued that the case for South Korea’s nuclear armament overestimates uncertain benefits while underestimating tangible costs and disadvantages, particularly the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy and the international non-proliferation regime.

Southeast Asia and the Global South: Rhetoric and Reality

Hoang Thi Ha, Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, co-wrote a commentary with Cha Hae Won that contextualises Southeast Asian countries within the Global South discourse and examines where they align with the characteristics generally associated with the Global South and where they diverge.

If Trump Returns, 5 Resets New Delhi May Need

C. Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote for The Indian Express on the implications of Trump 2.0 for India, arguing that the Indian foreign policy elite need to rethink their “common sense” in dealing with the US. He also highlighted that, in terms of security, India might be better placed than US allies in Europe and Asia who fear US abandonment.

China’s Surprise Rate Cut; Biden Exits Race, Endorses Harris | Bloomberg: The China Show 7/22/2024

Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean Ambassador to the United Nations, commented on Kamala Harris’s entry into the US presidential race and its implications for Asia in an interview with Bloomberg.

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