Is Asia-Pacific Nuclear Risk Quietly Getting Worse?
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Is Asia-Pacific Nuclear Risk Quietly Getting Worse?

 

 

13 July 2026

In our latest update, we publish our second Quarterly Nuclear Memo of the year covering nuclear developments between April and June 2026. The report highlights that the regional nuclear landscape is being severely strained by multiple structural issues rather than a single crisis. We also bring to you the third episode of our “Talking Nuclear” interview series, featuring a conversation between APLN Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi and Sri Lanka’s former Foreign Secretary, Ambassador HMGS Palihakkara.

Our weekly roundup of member activities features analysis on Indian Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Indonesia, the implications of the Iran War for Southeast Asia, China’s nuclear strategy, and more.

Our second Quarterly Nuclear Memo for the period April to June 2026 assesses global nuclear developments across four categories: Disruptive, Stabilising, Worrisome, and Dialogue-based. APLN Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi and APLN Policy Fellow Hree P. Samudra find that the past quarter was defined not by a singular crisis, but by a concurrent erosion of the structural foundations of the global nuclear order. Worrisome trends—such as the fissures at the NPT Review Conference and the DPRK’s formal declaration of its irreversible nuclear status—far outnumbered stabilising developments. While fragile US-Iran diplomacy and ASEAN nuclear energy initiatives offer tentative glimmers of hope, the overall trajectory reveals a dangerous regional decline that demands urgent course correction.

Read the Nuclear Memo

Talking Nuclear: HMGS Palihakkara in conversation with Manpreet Sethi

 

In episode 3 of our Talking Nuclear interview series, Manpreet Sethi is joined by Ambassador HMGS Palihakkara, former Foreign Secretary of Sri Lanka, to discuss the structural deadlocks in multilateral disarmament, the fragile future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and Sri Lanka’s specific vulnerabilities as a non-nuclear island nation. Drawing on his experience at the Conference on Disarmament, Ambassador Palihakkara compares the nuclear landscape of the past with today’s increasingly complex security environment, highlighting the evolving risks that face the international community.

Watch the interview

APLN has over 180 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.

See all member activities

 

 

From Indonesia to Australia to New Zealand, PM Modi charts India’s Indo-Pacific arc

Pankaj Saran, former Deputy National Security Adviser of India, wrote for The Economic Times on the implications of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent Indo-Pacific visits, arguing that India must continue integrating itself into the region by building stronger relationships and strengthening regional supply and value chains.

Energy Shocks and Strategic Choices: How Southeast Asia Is Navigating Turbulence in the Middle East

Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of Asia Program at the International Crisis Group, was featured in The Bridge: Europe’s Indo-Pacific podcast, where she shared her insights on how Southeast Asia is experiencing and responding to the conflict in the Middle East.

Beyond US and China, India and others are building a ‘G Minus Two’ for Indo-Pacific

C. Raja Mohan, Distinguished Professor at the Motwani-Jadeja Institute of American Studies at Jindal Global University, wrote for The Indian Express and analysed how Delhi is responding to the evolving dynamics between Washington and Beijing by expanding its cooperation across Asia.

China’s Pacific ballistic missile test

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), commented on China’s recent ballistic missile test into the Pacific Ocean, highlighting concerns about China’s expanding nuclear capabilities and the implications for regional security and the global non-proliferation order.

Understanding China’s Nuclear Strategy

Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was featured in the latest episode of The Nuclear Table podcast, where he discussed Beijing’s strategic thinking, North Korea, missile defence, strategic stability, and the future of US-China arms control.

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