| This week, Elaine Natalie and Andhika Prawira explore how Indonesia might react to South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons. Vijay Naidu offers an overview of reactions from the Pacific Small Island Developing States to China’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. And in light of Russia’s intermediate-range missile strike on Ukraine, we revisit Nick Hansen‘s special report on nuclear-capable missiles, detailing Russia’s missile capabilities.
As always, we share recent activities from our network, analysis on AUKUS, India-Indonesia relations, and the implications of Trump’s second term for the Asia-Pacific. |
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A Rogue Seoul? South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions and Indonesia-South Korea Relations
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Elaine Natalie and Andhika Prawira argue that South Korea’s potential nuclear armament could significantly strain its relationship with Indonesia, a strong advocate of nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability. Such a move would destabilise the Asia-Pacific, undermine Southeast Asia’s Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, and potentially trigger a regional arms race. Despite their robust economic and strategic cooperation, Indonesia would prioritise regional stability and the integrity of the non-proliferation regime over its bilateral relationship with Seoul.
This essay is the second in a series that examines the South Korean nuclear debate from regional perspectives. Click here to learn more about our project Nuclear Order in East Asia. |
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Pacific Island Countries’ Respond to China’s ICBM Test
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| Vijay Naidu offers an overview of the Pacific Small Island Developing States’ reactions to China’s recent ICBM test. He observes that for the Pacific countries, the test was not a peaceful action; it reflected China’s belligerent intentions as a major nuclear power and brought back painful memories of past nuclear tests in the Pacific, raising fears of renewed militarisation. |
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[WMD] Nuclear-Capable Missiles
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| In this special report, Nick Hansen examines the wide range of nuclear missile delivery systems deployed and under development by the six nuclear-armed states in the Asia-Pacific: the United States, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and the DPRK. He warns that the rapid expansion of missile capabilities, without new reduction measures, could destabilise nuclear doctrines and emphasises the urgent need to curb missile proliferation to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
This report is a part of the APLN Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) project, which assesses the baseline status of and trends in vertical and horizontal proliferation of WMD across the Asia Pacific region. |
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Nuclear War in Northeast Asia?:
Early Warnings, Risk Reduction, and Denuclearization
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| On December 6 and 7, APLN members and staff Fumihiko Yoshida, Kazuko Hikawa, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Sayo Saruta, Peter Hayes, Van Jackson, Hiromichi Umebayashi, Michiru Nishida, and Wooksik Cheong will participate in a symposium to discuss potential measures that civil society and governments in the Asia-Pacific region can take to prevent nuclear war escalation. This event is co-hosted by RECNA-Nagasaki University, the Social Science Research Institute (SSRI) at International Christian University, and the Institute of Global Concern at Sophia University. |
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Understanding Pathways to Nuclear Escalation in Southern Asia
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| In this volume published by the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), the authors explore potential triggers and scenarios for nuclear use involving India, Pakistan, China and provide suggestions for nuclear-armed countries to mitigate risks along identified escalation pathways in Southern Asia.
The volume is edited by APLN Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi, with contributions from APLN colleagues Frank O’Donnell, Tanvi Kulkarni, and Feroz Khan. |
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APLN has over 160 members from 22 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean Ambassador to the United Nations, joined a panel discussion on CNA Insider to explore what a Trump Administration could mean for the US, Asia, and the world. They also discussed what the next commander-in-chief might do about conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and how domestic politics could influence the President’s policies on global issues like climate change and trade. |
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| Maria Rost Rublee, Professor of International Relations at the University of Melbourne, co-wrote a paper with Lai-Ha Chan on understanding AUKUS as a minilateral grouping, examining the extent to which it may contribute to the security interests of its three partners and promote peace and stability within the Indo-Pacific region. |
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| Jun Bong-geun, Professor Emeritus at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, participated in a panel discussion at the Korea Herald Security Forum titled “Alliance After US Election 2024: A Seoul Perspective.” He pointed out that, with US-ROK relations expected to enter a phase of unpredictability, Seoul must identify a key role in the potential reopening of nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang. |
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| Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor at the Research Centre for Politics-National Research and Innovation Agency (PRP-BRIN), joined Garima Mohan and James Crabtree to discuss the changing global balance of power. They highlighted how the world’s centre of gravity has been shifting eastward in recent decades, and explored whether India and Indonesia can successfully pull it southward. |
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| Shen Dingli, Professor of international relations at Fudan University, was quoted in The Straits Times, where he commented on President-elect Trump’s Cabinet picks and suggested that the shared pragmatism between China and the Republican Party could lead to improved relations compared to the past four years under President Biden. |
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