This month, we issued a joint statement signed by 75 senior defence and foreign policy figures from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States, urging nuclear-armed states to reinforce nuclear fail-safe mechanisms. Released at the Munich Security Conference, the statement reinforced the MSC’s call for urgent urgent and renewed efforts to reduce nuclear risks and strengthen regional security.

As part of our ongoing analysis on great-power competition in the Asia-Pacific, we published a new report by Frank O’Donnell and Joel Petersson Ivre on how mutual failure by Washington and Beijing to recognise the independent agency of regional states distorts each side’s understanding of the other’s influence in the Asia-Pacific. In collaboration with the Nautilus Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, we co-published two scholarly papers on the India-Pakistan nuclear dynamics. Rakesh Sood explores how India and Pakistan have perceived and responded to each other’s nuclear signalling across multiple crises, and Moeed Yusuf and Rizwan Zeb examine the mediary role of third parties in five South Asian nuclear crises.

In other key publications, Anna Hood examines whether Articles I and II of the NPT permit nuclear sharing, while Tariq Rauf’s policy brief highlights proliferation risks and critical weaknesses in the IAEA safeguards system exposed by naval nuclear propulsion programmes in South Korea, Australia, and Brazil.

We also co-hosted a special online conversation with Joel Wit on his new book, Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea, and a webinar exploring the legal and policy dimensions of nuclear threats.

Thank you for your continued support of APLN and as always I welcome your feedback on our work.

75 senior defence and foreign policy figures from across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States signed a joint statement calling on all nuclear-armed states to strengthen safeguards against the accidental, mistaken, or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons.

The statement warns that safeguards essential to preventing nuclear catastrophe are now being tested by disruptive technologies, cyberattacks on command-and-control systems, and the erosion of arms control, and urges the five NPT nuclear-weapon states to issue a Joint Statement in support of nuclear fail-safe ahead of the April 2026 NPT Review Conference.

Prepared jointly by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG), the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN), the European Leadership Network (ELN), the Grandview Institution (GVI), and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the statement is being released during the 2026 Munich Security Conference.

The full statement is available in English and Chinese.

Frank O’Donnell and Joel Petersson Ivre argue that the United States and China both overestimate each other’s influence over Asia-Pacific states. Washington misreads regional neutrality as evidence of growing Chinese sway, while Beijing interprets alliance-strengthening by US partners as deliberate containment rather than independent balancing. These distorted threat perceptions feed a self-fulfilling cycle of tension that the authors argue can only be broken if both powers recognise the limits of their influence and respect the independent choices of regional states.

This report is published as part of the APLN’s Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations, supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Moeed Yusuf and Rizwan Zeb examine the trilateral dynamics in five South Asian nuclear crises in which the United States played a mediatory role that led to crisis termination. “The only smart policy,” they argue, “is one that ensures crisis prevention. This points to the need for the international community to push for a serious Indian-Pakistani dialogue aimed at addressing the root causes of bilateral tensions—their outstanding disputes and contentious issues.”

This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

APLN member Rakesh Sood writes on how India and Pakistan have perceived and responded to each other’s nuclear signalling across multiple crises. Unlike Cold War nuclear rivals, the two South Asian states face unresolved territorial disputes, enduring communal passions, and persistent terrorism, making them especially prone to violent flare-ups and resistant to effective crisis management. While nuclear deterrence has often helped contain escalation once conflict erupts, Sood warns that the risk of inadvertent escalation remains high due to misperception, emotion-driven decision-making, and the potential misuse or failure of technology.

This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This essay was posted by International & Comparative Law Quarterly here under Creative Commons license the terms of which are found here. This report is published simultaneously by the Nautilus Institute here.

On 26 February, APLN co-hosted a special online book talk with Joel Wit to mark the publication of his new book, Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea. Drawing on decades of first-hand experience in US–DPRK negotiations, Wit traces the history of American nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang, and what it means for the prospects of another Trump–Kim summit. The session, co-hosted with the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies and the Korea Peace Forum, was moderated by Michelle Ye Hee Lee, the Washington Post’s Tokyo/Seoul bureau chief.

On 24 February, APLN co-hosted a webinar examining the legal and policy dimensions of nuclear threats. The discussion centred on a joint paper by Monique Cormier and Anna Hood, “‘All Options are on the Table’: Assessing the International Legality of Nuclear Threats,” which surveys historical cases across eight decades to underscore the urgent need to strengthen international legal frameworks against nuclear threats.

The webinar, co-hosted with the Nautilus Institute, and Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, featured opening remarks by APLN member and Director of the Nautilus Institute Peter Hayes and discussions on the paper by Anna Hood and George Perkovich. The session was moderated by APLN member Marianne Hanson, with additional insights from APLN member Kazuko Hikawa, Carrie McDougall, Paul Davis, and Andy Shichen Tian. 

On 20 February, APLN members Nobumasa Akiyama and Manpreet Sethi spoke at a webinar hosted by the International Group of Eminent Persons for a World without Nuclear Weapons (IGEP) building on the recommendations issued at its sixth and final meeting. The event explored pathways for nuclear risk reduction, bridging the gap between disarmament and security, and other critical issues ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference.