| In this week’s edition, Sanjay Mahindru examines the necessity and possible shape of a Nuclear Risk Reduction Review mechanism for India. From our Maritime Incidents and Escalation in the Asia-Pacific project, Jamie Kwong assesses the drivers, feasibility and risks of naval nuclear propulsion for non-nuclear-weapon states, while Jennifer Parker argues that Australia’s biggest anti-submarine warfare gaps lie not in submarines, but in the sensors, systems and specialists needed to support them.
Our weekly roundup of member activities features analysis on the BRICS summit, the Pacific Islands Forum annual leaders’ summit, Southeast Asian states’ hedging strategies, and the space security landscape. |
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A Proposed Indian Nuclear Risk Reduction Mechanism
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In this policy brief, Vice Admiral Sanjay Mahindru, former Deputy Chief of Naval Staff and INS Arihant’s first commanding officer, examines how India can manage the “Always/Never Dilemma” — ensuring that nuclear weapons remain available when properly authorised while preventing accidental, inadvertent or unauthorised use. Drawing on risk-reduction practices in other nuclear-armed states, he proposes a multilayered Nuclear Risk Review Mechanism comprising Doctrinal, Stockpile and Fail-Safe Reviews, and considers how such a mechanism could be tailored to India and contribute to regional deterrence stability.
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In Pursuit of Nuclear-Powered Submarines: Australia, South Korea, and Japan
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Jamie Kwong assesses why states without nuclear weapons are pursuing naval nuclear propulsion, the legal and technical challenges involved, and the non-proliferation risks associated with these programmes. Bringing Australia, South Korea and Japan into a comparative frame, Kwong looks at how safeguards and fuel choices could shape the development of these programmes, as well as the broader implications for nuclear escalation. The safeguards arrangements they negotiate, the transparency they provide and the domestic support they build could become reference points for how other non-nuclear-weapon states approach naval nuclear propulsion.
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Australia’s Anti-Submarine Warfare Capability in the 2030s
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Jennifer Parker assesses Australia’s current and planned undersea warfare capabilities, arguing that the focus on AUKUS and nuclear-powered submarines risks obscuring more immediate capability gaps, including towed-array sonar and specialist anti-submarine warfare expertise. At the same time, Australia is building a broader suite of crewed and uncrewed undersea capabilities, pointing to a significant shift in its approach to anti-submarine warfare. Parker concludes that Australia’s comparative advantage will lie not in any single platform, but in the depth of capabilities it is assembling and its ability to integrate them with allies and partners.
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APLN has over 190 members from 26 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| C. Raja Mohan, Distinguished Professor at the Motwani-Jadeja Institute of American Studies at Jindal Global University, wrote for The Indian Express and argued that multilateral organisations such as APEC, BRICS, the EU, G7 and NATO operate within the parameters set by great-power politics, as the world may be moving away from multipolarity. |
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| On September 21, Cheng-Chwee Kuik, Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, will participate in an event hosted by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada to discuss how Southeast Asian states navigate uncertainty in their relationships with China, the United States, and other middle powers, including Canada. |
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| Sandra Tarte, Associate Professor at the University of the South Pacific, wrote for East Asia Forum and argued that the credibility of the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration depends on its principles applying to all state actors in the region, rather than being invoked selectively and opportunistically. |
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| Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), wrote for The Diplomat on the rapidly deteriorating space security landscape, arguing that while the US has now openly announced the deployment of “on-orbit space control weapons,” Beijing and Moscow have long been developing and employing such capabilities under the rhetoric of peaceful use of space. The space arms race, she suggests, now appears to be fully underway. |
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