Can ASEAN Hold Its Ground Between Washington and Beijing?

15 Jun 2026 | APLN

15 June 2026

In our latest update, Piper Campbell breaks down the future of US-Southeast Asia relations as the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China intensifies. We also revisit key insights from our Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations, exploring how regional states in the Asia-Pacific are recalibrating their defence and security partnerships with each other and with Washington and Beijing.

We also round up recent activities from our network, including analyses on structural issues that deadlocked the NPT RevCon and paths to strengthen the treaty’s credibility, middle power realignments in the current US political landscape, and ASEAN’s crisis management capability.

US Policy towards Southeast Asia under the Trump Administration

Piper Campbell, former Head of the US Mission to ASEAN, examines what a shifting US regional policy means for Southeast Asian states confronting volatile US-China dynamics. She sets out four possible futures to 2035 that explore whether ASEAN can act with greater cohesion and whether US-China relations move toward accommodation or sharper contestation. To preserve regional room for manoeuvre, Campbell calls on ASEAN states to strengthen regional cohesion, deepen economic connectivity, coordinate more effectively on energy and trade pressures, and diversify external partnerships while continuing to engage both Washington and Beijing.

Read the special report

Beyond Collective Balancing: A Typology of Asian Minilaterals and US Strategic Expectations

Kelly Grieco observes that US expectations for Asian minilaterals are increasingly disconnected from regional realities where arrangements are shaped by geography, power asymmetries, and divergent threat perceptions. The United States should work with these diverse security arrangements as they exist, rather than pressure states into coalitions they are unlikely to sustain.

Situating Malaysia’s Defence Partnerships: Prospects for the Next Decade

Hoo Chiew Ping and Ngeow Chow Bing evaluate the five most consequential defence partnerships that will impact Malaysia’s strategic environment amid shifting major power dynamics. To maintain its delicate equilibrium, they recommend Malaysia adopt a careful, measured approach that balances international collaboration with its own domestic defence priorities and capabilities.

Military Exercises and Security Multialignment in Asia amid US-China Competition

Prashanth Parameswaran assesses the proliferation of military exercises in Asia amid US–China competition, noting how middle powers navigate alignment pressures by diversifying partners. Drawing on extensive field research and interviews, he explores how this shifting landscape reshapes strategic norms and the regional balance of power.

Loss and Containment: Asia-Pacific states and the exaggerated threat perceptions of the United States and China

Frank O’Donnell and Joel Petersson Ivre argue that the United States and China both overestimate each other’s influence over Asia-Pacific states, with Washington misreading regional neutrality as growing Chinese sway, and Beijing interpreting alliance-strengthening as deliberate containment. These distorted perceptions feed a self-fulfilling cycle of tension that requires both powers to recognize their limits and respect regional choices.

APLN has over 180 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.

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Iran at NPT RevCon 2026

Manpreet Sethi, APLN Senior Research Adviser and Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, wrote for the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies and explained how competing views and deeper structural issues deadlocked the RevCon once again.

Symposium examines Asia in transition and the role of middle powers

Kuik Cheng-Chwee, Professor in International Relations, Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS), National University of Malaysia, gave a keynote address on Middle power realignments in Trump 2.0 at the Asia New Zealand Foundation Symposium.

Interview in the Mainichi Shimbun: “Strengthen the Credibility of the NPT Ahead of Its Next Review in Five Years” [in Japanese]

Nobumasa Akiyama, Senior Associate Fellow at APLN, expressed concern over the removal of references to North Korea’s nuclear program from the draft final document and emphasised the importance of the NPT as a forum for dialogue between nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear-weapon states, stressing the need to use the next five years to continue efforts to strengthen the credibility of the NPT regime.

Southeast Asia and the Prospect of Major Power Conflict

Natalie Sambhi, Senior Policy Fellow with Asia Society Australia, will join Bich Tran for an event exploring how Southeast Asia’s domestic politics, economic dependencies, security relationships, and regional institutions influence state behavior during periods of heightened uncertainty.

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