| Dear Friends and Colleagues,
April was a consequential month for the global nuclear order. The 11th NPT Review Conference opened in New York under the shadow of the Iran war and after strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, raising the risk of a radiological disaster. These developments are fuelling a dangerous erosion of confidence in the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
Our inaugural Quarterly Nuclear Memo, authored by Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi, captures these shifts, assessing the destabilising developments in the nuclear landscape from January to April 2026. It is accompanied by our first Membership Survey, where members identify cyber risks to nuclear command and control systems as a top-tier threat.
Last month, we were also honoured to feature an exclusive commentary by APLN member Cho Hyun, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, who responded to the debate over South Korean nuclear armament. Minister Cho makes the case that non-proliferation remains a “logical strategic imperative” for South Korea, a stance further analysed in our latest Pulse by four leading experts.
In last month’s APLN Korea Times columns, our members examined the ripple effects of the crisis in West Asia. Kazuko Ito and Carlos Sorreta considered how the war in Iran is eroding global norms and influencing the DPRK’s nuclear calculus, potentially driving a dangerous new cycle of armament in East Asia.
We continue to examine how emerging technologies are reshaping the global military landscape. In a policy brief, Aina Turillazzi explored the integration of artificial intelligence within the Australian Defence Force and the shifts needed to ensure AI-enabled forces remain controllable in crisis settings.
Finally, we continued our work to promote regional security and stability, from our panel at the 8th Normandy World Peace Forum to strategic dialogues in Kuala Lumpur. We are also delighted to welcome Ambassador Michael Tene as our newest member, whose expertise strengthens our collective voice at this critical juncture.
As always, I am grateful for your continued support and look forward to receiving your comments and suggestions. |
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| Kind regards,
Shatabhisha Shetty
APLN Executive Director |
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In our inaugural Quarterly Nuclear Memo, Senior Research Adviser Manpreet Sethi surveys the evolving nuclear landscape from January to April 2026. Organised across four categories, Disruptive, Stabilising, Worrisome, and Dialogue-based, the Memo draws connections between developments ranging from the expiry of New START and military strikes on nuclear facilities to preparations for the NPT Review Conference, offering essential expert context for policymakers.
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Our inaugural Membership Survey captures how senior nuclear policy practitioners from the Asia-Pacific assess today’s nuclear risks. The findings are striking: cyberattacks on nuclear command and control systems rank as the greatest emerging threat, followed closely by concerns over testing resumption and the collapse of arms control frameworks. The survey underscores a pivotal period of transition for the region and the broader global non-proliferation region.
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Non-Proliferation as a Strategic Imperative
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In an exclusive commentary for APLN, Cho Hyun, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, delivers one of the most direct public responses by a senior government minister to concerns that South Korea’s pursuit of uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing, and nuclear-powered submarines signals an intention to develop nuclear weapons.
His answer is unequivocal: non-proliferation is ‘not simply a matter of principle, but a logical strategic imperative.’ Minister Cho argues that nuclear armament would erode the US-ROK alliance, trigger a chain of regional proliferation, and devastate one of the world’s most globally integrated economies. Abandoning the NPT, he warns, would mean ‘becoming another North Korea’.
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Non-Proliferation as a Strategic Imperative: Experts respond to ROK Foreign Minister
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Following the publication of Foreign Minister Cho Hyun’s commentary, we feature four expert perspectives evaluating the future of South Korea’s nuclear trajectory. John Carlson, Jun Bong-geun, Maria Rost Rublee and Toby Dalton underscore that the costs of pursuing such a path, including the potential collapse of the US alliance, severe economic sanctions, and regional destabilisation, far outweigh the perceived security gains, reinforcing Minister Cho’s stance that non-proliferation remains a strategic imperative for South Korea.
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Artificial Intelligence in the Australian Defence Forces: Strengthening Denial, Managing Escalation
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Aina Turillazzi examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping the Australian Defence Force under the 2024 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program, where AI is largely financed through the same machinery that funds connectivity, data infrastructure, and command and control. AI could strengthen decision advantage and deterrence, but also raises new escalation risks in crisis settings. To mitigate these risks, Turillazzi argues that the policy task is not to slow adoption, but to ensure AI holds up under crisis pressure, and outlines four strategic shifts to build a more controllable AI-enabled force.
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Time for Strategic Dialogue on Great Power Threats
to Peace and Security
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Kazuko Ito argues that the US and Israel’s use of force against Iran violates international law and exposes deep hypocrisy in the post-war UN system. She warns that such actions, alongside support for Israel despite alleged human rights violations in Gaza, risk eroding global norms and triggering a broader breakdown of the international order. She calls for Asia-Pacific countries, particularly Japan and South Korea, to reduce their overreliance on bilateral ties with the US and instead build a dense network of multilateral partnerships to establish a more just, resilient, and rules-based global order.
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Middle East conflicts’ implications for two Koreas
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Carlos Sorreta, Philippine Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, argues that the recent military escalations between the United States, Israel, and Iran are likely to have reinforced North Korea’s conviction that nuclear deterrence is the only way to prevent foreign intervention. It would encourage Pyongyang to advance its weapons programs and fuel a dangerous nuclear armament cycle in East Asia, complicating any prospects for denuclearisation. Consequently, the international community must utilise the upcoming NPT Review Conference to reinforce nonproliferation pillars and stabilise regional security to prevent a total collapse of global disarmament efforts.
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APLN is pleased to welcome Ambassador Michael Tene as our newest network member. A senior Indonesian diplomat, he has served at Indonesian Embassies in London and Washington DC, and held key roles, including Chief of Staff to the Foreign Minister and Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. From 2015 to 2018, he served as Ambassador and Deputy Permanent Representative at the Permanent Mission of Indonesia to the United Nations and other international organisations in Geneva.
He later joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where he served as Deputy Secretary-General for Community and Corporate Affairs, and subsequently as Deputy Secretary-General for the ASEAN Political-Security Community.
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Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations: The Shifting Trajectories of Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
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On 28-29 April, APLN hosted a conference in Kuala Lumpur as part of its project on Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations and the implications of major power competition for regional stability. Participants discussed the shifting nature of US-China relations, how regional states are both responding to and shaping these developments, and the growing role of minilaterals and multilaterals in building stability in the Asia-Pacific.
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What Changes Lie Ahead for Security in Asia?
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On 10 April, APLN co-hosted a panel at the 8th Normandy World Peace Forum in Caen, in partnership with the Normandy Region, on the future of security in Asia. APLN members Carlos Sorreta and Lim Eunjung spoke at the session, moderated by Senior Policy Fellow Tanvi Kulkarni, exploring how Asian states foresee the evolution of their relations with China over the next decade.
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Last month, we were delighted to welcome Ariel Phuphaphantakarn and Hree Putri Samudra to the APLN team as Policy Fellows. They are working closely with us to advance our research and policy agenda, whilst supporting our events, communications and network engagement efforts.
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