| This week, we released a joint statement signed by 75 former senior officials and experts from the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the US urging all nuclear-armed states to strengthen safeguards against accidental, mistaken, or unauthorised nuclear use. Rakesh Sood examines how India and Pakistan have interpreted and managed each other’s nuclear signalling across multiple crises. And we invite you to register for our upcoming webinar on the evolution of US nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang.
We also highlight recent activities from our network, including analyses on the collapse of the US-led postwar order, the LDP’s landslide electoral victory in Japan, Malaysia’s shifting threat perceptions amid South China Sea tensions, and more. |
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Support for Preventing the Accidental, Mistaken, or Unauthorized Use of a Nuclear Weapon: Nuclear “Fail-Safe”
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75 senior defence and foreign policy figures from across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States have signed a joint statement calling on all nuclear-armed states to strengthen safeguards against the accidental, mistaken, or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons.
The statement warns that safeguards essential to preventing nuclear catastrophe are now being tested by disruptive technologies, cyberattacks on command-and-control systems, and the erosion of arms control, and urges the five NPT nuclear-weapon states to issue a Joint Statement in support of nuclear fail-safe ahead of the April 2026 NPT Review Conference.
Prepared jointly by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG), the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN), the European Leadership Network (ELN), the Grandview Institution (GVI), and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the statement is being released during the 2026 Munich Security Conference.
The full statement is available in English and Chinese.
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Escalation Dynamics Under the Nuclear Shadow:
India’s Approach
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Rakesh Sood examines how India and Pakistan have perceived and responded to each other’s nuclear signalling across multiple crises. Unlike Cold War nuclear rivals, the two South Asian states face unresolved territorial disputes, enduring communal passions, and persistent terrorism, making them especially prone to violent flare-ups and resistant to effective crisis management. While nuclear deterrence has often helped contain escalation once conflict erupts, Sood warns that the risk of inadvertent escalation remains high due to misperception, emotion-driven decision-making, and the potential misuse or failure of technology.
This paper is published simultaneously by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here and by the Nautilus Institute here, with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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APLN, the Institute of North Korean Studies at Yonsei University, and the Korea Peace Forum invite you to a special online discussion with Joel Wit on his new book, Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea (26 February 2026, 11:00 KST). Drawing on decades of first-hand experience in US–DPRK negotiations, Wit traces the history of American nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang, and what it means for the prospects of another Trump–Kim summit. The session will be moderated by Michelle Ye Hee Lee, the Washington Post’s Tokyo/Seoul bureau chief.
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On 20 February 2026, from 11:30 to 13:00 KST, the International Group of Eminent Persons for a World without Nuclear Weapons (IGEP) will host a webinar building on the recommendations issued at its sixth and final meeting. The event will explore pathways for nuclear risk reduction, bridge the gap between disarmament and security, and other critical issues ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference. APLN members Nobumasa Akiyama and Manpreet Sethi will speak at the session.
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APLN has over 170 members from 24 countries in the Asia-Pacific.
Each week, we feature their latest contributions
to global and regional security debates.
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| Chung-in Moon, APLN Vice Chair, wrote for Hankyoreh, reexamining today’s global order through the lens of Chinese scholar Yan Xuetong’s four leadership types. He argues that the post–World War II US-led international order is collapsing, and that the world is entering a new “Warring States” era marked by intensifying great-power competition among seven major blocs. |
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| Eunjung Lim, Professor at the Division of International Studies at Kongju National University, commented on the LDP’s landslide victory, what lay behind the sweeping result, what it suggests about public views of the administration, and how the election outcome might affect Japan’s bilateral relations with South Korea as well as trilateral ties among Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo. |
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| Hoang Thi Ha, Senior Fellow and Co-coordinator of the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, highlighted that as the Trump administration has overturned long-standing pillars of US foreign policy, Southeast Asia—given its deep economic, strategic, and developmental ties to the United States—has been particularly vulnerable to these shocks. |
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| Kuik Cheng-Chwee, Professor in International Relations, Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS), National University of Malaysia, pointed out that the Mid-Term Review (MTR) reflects Malaysia’s changing threat perceptions, particularly concerning cyber insecurity and tensions in the South China Sea. |
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