Modelling Nuclear Weapons Use

29 Jan 2022 | APLN

29 January 2022

Dear Network Members and Colleagues,

This week we present our report on nuclear weapons use cases in Northeast Asia, a video interview on confidence-building measures with Feroz Khan, a column by John Carlson on how to make the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty permanent, and member activities.

New Report: Nuclear Use Cases in Northeast Asia and Implications for Reducing Nuclear Risks

On 28 January, APLN published the report “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia.” The report develops set of 25 use cases where nuclear weapons are used in relation to a Korean conflict or in a conflict in Northeast Asia in 2025-2030. The use cases involve (mostly) limited nuclear war involving the DPRK, US, China, and Russia as one or more of the states to use nuclear weapons first.The uses cases span the continuum from unintended to intended or deliberate use and consider the following elements: “Triggering Events and First Use”, “How the Conflict Evolves”, Use Case Consequences”, and “Use Case Uncertainties, Ultimate Outcome, and Policy Lessons”.

The report is the culmination of the first year of a three-year joint project with the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), and the Nautilus Institute. In the project’s second year, computer simulations based on the nuclear use cases will be developed and detailed policy recommendations will follow in year three.

Read Now (PDF)

This report is a part of a joint project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA) with the Nautilus Institute, the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA), and the Panel on Peace and Security of North East Asia (PSNA).

Video interview: Feroz Khan on trilateral confidence building measures in Southern Asia

In this special video interview, Brigadier General (Retd) Feroz Khan, former Pakistani Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) in the Joint Services Headquarters, highlights the escalatory risks in India-Pakistan and China-India relations and proposes a range of trilateral confidence building measures (CBMs) to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. The interview is based on his recent report for APLN titled “Trilateral Strategic Confidence Building Measures in Southern Asia.”

Read the Report (PDF)

This video and special report is a part of an APLN project on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). In this project, experts and APLN members assess key features of WMD infrastructure, force structures, capabilities, envisioned uses and solutions across the Asia-Pacific WMD landscape.

Making Ban on Nuclear Weapon Tests Permanent

On 26 January, in the latest APLN-Korea Times column, John Carlson, APLN senior associate fellow and former Director General of the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office, argues that US ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is the key to lead others to ratify and bring the treaty into force.

Read Now

AUKUS’ opportunities and risks for India
On 21 January, APLN member Manpreet Sethi, wrote for Pacific Forum on the opportunities and risks that the AUKUS deal has created for India. Read more

Fulfil the NPT: From nuclear threats to human security
Several APLN members have signed the No First Use Global open letter to the nuclear weapons states and States Parties to the NPT, urging them to “[phase] out the role of nuclear weapons in security doctrines and develop a practical plan to achieve the peace and security of a nuclear-weapon-free world.” Read more

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