THE KOREA TIMES

APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon argued that South Korea must prepare for potential challenges posed by a second Trump presidency, including heightened defence cost-sharing demands, strained alliance relations, and trade protectionism. To mitigate these risks, South Korea should pursue greater military self-reliance, enhance regional security cooperation, improve inter-Korean relations, and strengthen economic resilience through innovation and diversified partnerships.

To cope with the defense cost-sharing issue and the divergence in threat perceptions, South Korea might need a structural readjustment. The Trump 2.0 “America First” doctrine will not tolerate South Korea’s free riding any longer, and the continuing presence of American troops cannot be taken for granted either. Like Europe, South Korea might have to seriously consider reducing its dependence on the U.S., while seeking greater military self-reliance. Transfer of wartime operational control from the U.S. is essential in this regard. Seoul must make every effort to change its security environment by improving ties with North Korea, China and Russia. In preparation for weakened American commitment or disengagement, Seoul needs to deliberate on building a new security architecture in Northeast Asia that could replace an American-centered collective defense system based on the current alliance. A collective security system through inclusive multilateral security cooperation could be an option, which includes all the nations in the region under the rubric of common security.

Trump’s direct deal with Kim Jong-un does not have to be necessarily a curse. On the contrary, it could be a blessing. As Sigfried Hecker has long argued, if Trump can persuade Kim Jong-un to halt North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities, roll back its nuclear weapons and missiles, and dismantle its nuclear programs incrementally, even at the expense of sanctions relaxation and diplomatic normalization, that would open a new horizon for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. One precondition is that such efforts should be linked to improved inter-Korean relations, a formal end of the war and the transformation of the armistice agreement into a sustainable peace regime, a regional nuclear arms control regime, and the creation of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in Northeast Asia.

It will be difficult for South Korea to avoid short-term damage caused by Trump’s trade protectionism. To cope with protectionist pressures, however, South Korea needs to enhance its competitiveness through innovation and partner diversification. It should also take advantage of open regionalism by hastening the finalization of the trilateral free trade arrangement with China and Japan, while enhancing the Regional Comprehensive Partnership and joining multilateral efforts to revitalize the World Trade Organization.

Arnold Toynbee once said, “Civilizations come to birth and proceed to grow by successfully responding to successive challenges.” Challenges imposed by Trump should not determine our destiny. We should overcome them with creative responses. When we do this, the Trump curses can turn into new blessings.

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