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APLN member Cheong Wook-sik commented that Trump’s recent remarks on denuclearisation appear to denote a sea change in Washington’s stance on nuclear weapons, presenting both challenges and opportunities for South and North Korea.

Trump’s new approach presents both challenges and opportunities for South and North Korea.

South Korea remains focused on strengthening its alliance with the US, including extended deterrence, but this stance clashes with Trump’s push for arms reductions. If South Korea fails to adapt to this shift on Trump’s part, it could face further pressure to increase its contributions to defense cost-sharing with the US and other financial burdens. Moreover, discussions on South Korea’s own acquisition of nuclear arms or latent nuclear capabilities, which have gained traction within both conservative and liberal political circles, may lose momentum as Trump seeks to denuclearize.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tactics for placing “maximum pressure” on North Korea are also taking new forms. In his first term, he used economic sanctions and military threats to pressure Pyongyang. In his second term, however, he appears to be shifting to asserting maximum pressure through personal rapport with Kim Jong-un.

The circumstances seem right for Kim to engage with Trump’s proposal. The idea of global nuclear disarmament aligns with long-standing rhetoric out of North Korea. Furthermore, Kim has emphasized North Korea’s status as a “strategic state” so if Trump recognizes him as a nuclear power and invites him to global arms reduction talks, Pyongyang may view it as an opportunity to enhance its strategic position.

Notably, on Feb. 18, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its stance that denuclearization was impossible but added an important qualifier: “As long as the US and its vassal forces’ hostile threat exists.” This contrasts with the Biden era when Pyongyang did not leave any possibility for negotiation open.

As North Korea maintains its stalwart opposition to denuclearizing, South Korea now faces a new variable in the form of Trump’s vision for a world free of nuclear weapons. Could there be a creative way to reconcile these two positions?

The establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) in Korea or Northeast Asia could be a viable alternative. While North Korea insists that denuclearization is conceptually and practically impossible, a NWFZ could offer a mutually acceptable framework. Additionally, establishing such a zone on the Korean Peninsula or Northeast Asia — a powder keg for nuclear conflict — could align with Trump’s nuclear arms reduction agenda.

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Image: Wikimedia Commons