The Gamble of AUKUS: Eroding the Rules of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
FSI INSIGHTS
APLN Associate Fellow Karla Mae G. Pabeliña discusses the optimal pathway for the AUKUS Pillar 1, focusing on Australia’s acquisition and development of a nuclear-powered submarine capability. She argues that the AUKUS partnership is a double gamble, as it seeks to alter the strategic equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific region while also attempting to bolster a state’s strength without compromising the nonproliferation regime. If the AUKUS members wish to uphold the rules-based international order, then they must be able to mitigate the concerns surrounding their partnership in a way that will support non-proliferation and reassure nonaligned states.
“While the strategic rationale for the development of Australia’s own deterrence capabilities is understood, the actions of all states must strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime, mitigate nuclear risks, and be in conformity with the goal of achieving a world free from nuclear weapons.”
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