THE KOREA TIMES

APLN member Kim Won-soo analysed the surprising outcome of Trump’s sweeping electoral victory, highlighting its significant domestic and international implications. Domestically, the election was seen as a referendum on the Biden administration’s economic performance, while internationally, Trump’s return signals a likely rise in protectionism and a retreat from multilateral leadership.

Trump’s reelection has sent out deeply reverberating messages to the whole world. Almost all countries in the Global West, East and South will be busy pondering what Trump 2.0 will mean for them and figuring out what should be the coping strategy. The following three messages stand out.

First and foremost is on the domestic front. This election was the popular verdict on the economic performance under the Biden administration. The famous saying “It’s the economy, stupid” has proved to be a factor again this time. Throughout the history of the American presidential elections, inflation has been the spoiler to the sitting presidency seeking reelection. Although President Joe Biden gave up the race, the voters perceived his successor candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, as part of the Biden team. It was intrinsically difficult for Harris to distinguish herself from the Biden legacy. In a larger sense, it was a repeat of the 2020 election when the voters turned against the seemingly poor performance of Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a corollary to this, the second message is on the international economic front. Trade protectionism and beggar thy neighbor behavior are likely to rise under the slogans of “America First” and “Make America Great Again.” Throughout the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly threatened to levy customs duties universal against all countries and much higher against China. He also threatened to cut subsidies for foreign companies investing in the United States. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, however, these threats will be harder to implement in reality than said. Any protectionist measures are likely to bring about negative consequences, ultimately hurting the U.S. economy as well.

Thirdly, on international geopolitics. Trump 2.0 will mean resuming the U.S. retreat from global leadership. Under the Biden administration, this trend has slowed down, but not stopped either, as shown in the abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2020. The pace of the retreat is bound to be accelerated under Trump 2.0, starting from the re-withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Multilateralism will be put under greater stress. Unilateralism and bilateralism will become the main tools of U.S. diplomacy, while minilateral or plural-lateral formats will be selectively used. The alliance relationship is also likely to face pressure for rebalancing.

This trend of American retreat will spur the geopolitical tectonic shifts along the fault lines between the Global West and East. A global arc of instability may emerge from Eastern Europe, Caucasus, the Middle East and South Asia to the South and East China Seas and the Korean Peninsula. Players seeking to change the status quo along this arc will be tempted to exploit the perceived power vacuum to their advantage. It will heighten the likelihood of conflict escalation involving major powers by miscalculation, misunderstanding or miscommunication.

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