GLOBAL ASIA

APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon wrote for Global Asia about the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the US-South Korea alliance. He argued that while it’s unlikely the US would change its foreign and national security policy toward Korea, domestic political chaos could erode American foreign policy and weaken the credibility of its security commitments.

Choices For South Korea

Regardless of who wins the US election, there will be rather limited immediate changes because of recent geopolitical events. The North Korea- Russia treaty and the tense confrontation between China and the US in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea will sustain and even strengthen the US security commitment to South Korea. Even if Trump gets re-elected, changes will be limited, although there may be skirmishes over defense cost-sharing. Overall, the Indo-Pacific strategy will likely remain intact, and bloc diplomacy and even military confrontation will intensify. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the US would alter its foreign and national security policy toward Korea.

However, South Koreans are concerned about domestic political backlash in the US after the November presidential election. It cannot be ruled out that depending on the electoral outcome, the US may well enter a period of domestic political chaos, which could erode American foreign policy and weaken the credibility of America’s security commitments. That would be nightmarish for South Korea.

South Korean domestic politics will be further divided. Conservatives will champion further strategic convergence with the US, whereas progressives will call for greater strategic autonomy. Domestic cleavages in the wake of this most alarming of American presidential elections will make the South Korean path to peace and prosperity perilous.

The full article can be accessed on the Global Asia website here.

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