THE KOREA TIMES

APLN Vice Chair Chung-in Moon was interviewed by The Korea Times, where he argued that South Korea needs to reduce its security dependency on the US, strengthen its self-reliant defense capabilities, actively pursue preventive diplomacy to avoid war, reactivate dialogue and engagement with Pyongyang, pay more attention to open regionalism and multilateralism, and overcome the self-defeating politics of polarization in foreign policy.

Q: How about the Korean Peninsula in the China-US strategic rivalry?

A: The China-US rivalry has been posing a major existential dilemma to South Korea. Theoretically speaking, there are several choices: pro-American balancing, bandwagoning China, standing alone and maintaining the status quo via muddling through. The most ideal seems to be the status quo scenario in which South Korea maintains the alliance with the U.S., while enhancing strategic cooperative partnership with China. But worsening Beijing-Washington ties have narrowed the scope of this kind of diplomatic maneuvering. In this circumstance, Seoul might have to strengthen its alliance ties with Washington because of constant threats from the North, but it should take more prudent moves not to provoke China. Dr. Henry Kissinger once told me, “China is big and near. You should not alienate or antagonize China.” We should keep his advice in mind. At the same time, we should cooperate with other middle powers in finding diplomatic solutions to prevent conflict escalation between China and the U.S.

Q: How will Trump’s handling of North Korea affect the national interests of South Korea? What stance should South Korea take?

A: President Trump can affect South Korea’s national interests in four different ways. First, he can bring the denuclearization of North Korea and a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula through a big deal with North Korea. Second, as the episode of fire and fury of the summer of 2017 shows, he can undertake military actions against North Korea, leading to the outbreak of a war in Korea when and if North Korea miscalculates Trump’s intention and triggers a military clash with the U.S. Third, amidst President Trump’s lack of attention to the Korean issue, Seoul and Pyongyang could engage in accidental armed conflicts that can escalate into a limited or full-blown military showdown. Finally, the status quo of inter-Korean relations, neither at peace nor war, can continue with high military tension and occasional clashes.

Of the four, the most desirable scenario is the first one. We should make close cooperation with the Trump administration to make a peaceful settlement possible. Scenarios two and third should be avoided at any cost. They will be nightmarish for us. We are all accustomed to the fourth status quo scenario. But we should stop the current status quo from turning into conflict escalation while finding measures to reduce tension, build mutual confidence and turn the existing armistice agreement system into a lasting peace regime through preventive diplomacy.

Q: What is your prediction of the future of U.S. foreign policy? Is the current setback to the world order temporary or irreversible? Will the change of U.S. government in four years alter its foreign policy?

A: It seems very difficult to predict the future of American foreign policy because it is totally up to personal instinct and whims as well as the transactional interest calculation of Trump. Nevertheless, the continuity of American foreign policy will be ultimately determined by the costs and benefit analysis of American citizens. If they feel safer and more prosperous as a result of the Trump policy, they will support its continuity. If the Democratic Party wins the next presidential election, things can change. But one thing is clear: damage is done. It will take considerable time and effort to regain its legitimacy, support and reputation on the world stage.

Q: How should South Korea deal with the rise of a disruptive world order? What suggestions do you have in mind?

A: President Yoon Suk Yeol has wholeheartedly endorsed and implemented liberal international mandates of the Biden administration in the name of “value alliance.” Now, the U.S. has abandoned it, posing a major dilemma for South Korea. Seoul is obliged to find alternatives.

I have the following suggestions. First, South Korea has been a great beneficiary of the liberal international order. Thus, it has a historical mandate to revive and sustain that order. Second, as with Europe, South Korea needs to reduce its security dependency on the U.S. and strengthen its self-reliant defense capabilities. Third, it should actively pursue preventive diplomacy to avoid war and prepare for peace. For this, it is essential for Seoul to reactivate dialogue and engagement with Pyongyang. Fourth, the South needs to pay more attention to open regionalism and multilateralism through the pursuit of multilateral diplomacy. Cooperation with other middle powers is indispensable. Please keep in mind that misery does love company. Finally, the South needs to overcome the self-defeating politics of polarization in foreign policy. National consensus on foreign and national security policy is essential for navigating the unknown horizon of an orderless world and regional politics.

Read the full article here.

Image: Wikimedia Commons