The rapid expansion of North Korea’s tactical nuclear-weapons arsenal and Kim’s threat of early employment of such weapons in future crises contribute more directly to South Korea and Japan’s pursuit of military countermeasures than North Korea’s arsenal of intercontinental nuclear weapons. The emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons, combined with Pyongyang’s vulnerable command and control system and its lack of experience in safely operating such battlefield nuclear weapons, poses a significant risk of triggering a nuclear conflict near China’s doorstep. This presents an opportunity for other regional countries to seek China’s cooperation in jointly discouraging Pyongyang from further expanding its tactical nuclear arsenal. They should also prioritize limiting the development or deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in potential future risk reduction talks with North Korea.

Other nuclear-weapons states should also respond positively to China’s advocacy for a no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons by discussing ways to promote this policy among smaller nuclear-armed states like North Korea. Given its own history of adhering to a no-first-use policy when facing much stronger adversaries, China is well-positioned to make a compelling case for North Korea to adopt a more restrained and cautious nuclear posture. This would help reduce the risk of nuclear conflict in the region.

Faced with an increase in strategic maneuvering by Moscow and Pyongyang, Beijing will not sit idly by and allow Putin and Kim to shape the security environment on its behalf. The international community has options to proactively engage Beijing and preserve regional stability.

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Image: iStock/Viacheslav Chernobrovin