THE QUINT

APLN member C Uday Bhaskar writes on Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s mysterious death and argues that it is unlikely to significantly impact the India-Iran relationship, which has been constrained by the swings in the Iran-US bilateral relationship.

The ‘Greater’ Loss

It is being speculated that in the intense factional tussle likely to animate Iranian domestic politics for the next few weeks, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the Supreme Leader may emerge as the new Iranian President.

An experienced and astute diplomat who was close to the Iranian hardliner faction and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), he also steered Tehran’s complex and often prickly relations with Saudi Arabia and the contested nuclear negotiations with external interlocutors.

In any event, West Asia will be in a state of anxiety and uncertainty for some time even as the Israeli war against Palestine shows no sign of moving towards consensual negotiations and the US moves into the last lap of a frenzied presidential race.

Impact on India-Iran Ties

The Raisi departure is unlikely to significantly impact the India-Iran relationship which has been constrained by the swings in the Iran-US bilateral relationship. Currently, the Chabahar port which was envisioned as a symbol of India-Iran regional development has become entangled in the Iran-US slipstream.

The new government in Delhi (Modi-led or otherwise)  will have to wait for the new leadership in Tehran to stabilise and review the outcome of the US elections for some degree of clarity about what lies ahead after the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi.