Dear members and colleagues,

 

In light of the Covid-19 pandemic affecting people and lives all over the world, APLN wishes all of its members and colleagues good health and safety during these uncertain times. Please find below a few updates from APLN.

 

APLN’s Activities

 

• A New Logo: APLN has a new logo! Since our founding, APLN has used a circular yellow radiation sign bordering a globe as its logo to represent its identity and network of members. In contrast to the yellow radiation sign, APLN’s new logo will feature a navy blue globe that is oriented towards the Asia-Pacific. We believe that the new logo and website will better align with APLN’s identity and developments since its conception—to inform and energize high-level policymakers and shape public opinion, and to advocate for a world in which real threats posed by nuclear weapons are contained, diminished, and eventually eliminated. The navy blue color symbolizes security, trust, and peace, while the globe represents APLN as an international organization. Surrounding the globe is an arm and hand that encapsulates APLN’s advocacy and hopes for complete denuclearization around the world. This new logo (copied below) will be used for all future APLN activities.

 

• APLN and Korea Times: On April 22, 2020, a column was featured on the APLN Corner of the Korea Times—“Covid 19 and North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Averting Catastrophe” written by Mely Caballero-Anthony. This article parallels the race for a Covid-19 vaccine to the nuclear arms race, and brings to attention the global pandemic that has ravaged most parts of the world. With Covid-19 having vastly challenged the most developed and richest of states, there is great possibility that North Korea has been affected as well, despite no confirmed reports. Nuclear weapons programs are costly and raises risks for violent conflicts. As such, the Covid-19 pandemic places North Korea in a unique position, the opportunity to prioritize human security and global health as they are components of national security.

 

•    APLN’s YouTube Videos: APLN has added new videos to our YouTube Channel. Trailers from APLN-KNDA’s Joint Conference (part of a series) on “Denuclearization of North Korea and Geo-Economic Opportunities and Challenges”are now accessible. Shim Sang-min discusses the progress made and challenges had post-Panmunjeom Summit between North and South Korea. He highlights that the issue of connecting and modernizing roadways in North Korea will require exemptions from the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee and that the language of UN sanctions themselves remain as chief obstacles for inter-Korean cooperation. Jun Bong-geun closes this session by stating that North Korean denuclearization issues should be supplemented by a multilateral approach with economic incentives to help mitigate trust issues and break the stalemate.

 

Members’ Activities

 

• Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe, an eminent member of APLN, sent the following message to the APLN Secretariat in response to APLN’s endorsement of ELN-Iran Project’s joint statement on Iran sanctions relief.We would like to share this message with you:

 

“Dear Professor Evans and Professor Moon,

 

I join the endorsement of the Iran sanctions for humanitarian reasons. I also wish to take advantage of this network of like-mined people in the Asia-Pacific to share some of my thoughts about the measures to be taken once the corona crisis is over. Because such serious pandemics, such as SARS, MERS, and now Corona, attack humans around the world every ten years or so, we need to be prepared. I very much welcome your critical comments. Under a corona siege, I wish you all to stay in good health.

 

Measure 1: Start a global network of epidemic alert, such as an ‘Epidemic Alert Network.’ You might as well agree on an international convention on early notification of deadly epidemic similar to the ‘Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident’ that was adopted after the Chernobyl accident. It is important that the door should be opened to any governmental or nongovernmental entity or individual to notify any serious epidemic that is highly contagious and deadly. There should be also a provision for any individual who volunteered to not be penalized for his/her actions.

 

Measure 2: Build up a surge capacity for future medical supplies and personnel. Medical supplies, masks, protective gears, testing devices, vaccines and remedial medicines could again become short of supply in any future recurrence. Hospitals and pharmaceutical companies should be required to build up stockpiles, emergency wards and prepare surge production capacity. An option is to provide a subsidy or financial scheme for doing this. There is an example of the Oil Stockpile regime under the International Energy Agency.

 

Measure 3: Think about an anticipatory defense. I may need more advice from virus experts, but since many of the new viruses seem to come from bats or like-creatures, we may need to start catching bats, collect samples of unknown viruses, and begin developing vaccines rather than waiting for them to come up. Highest isolation methods and extreme precautions have to be applied because in doing this, you may end up releasing a new virus inadvertently.”

 

• The Australian Institute of International Affairshas published Marianne Hanson’s article “Think Things Are Bad Now? Wait Until We Stumble Into a Nuclear Disaster” where she stresses the urgency of joining the ban on nuclear weapons as we have never been so close to the possibility of a nuclear war as we are now. The prospects of such an event are dire, even more so considering the advances in nuclear technology and increased tensions between nuclear-armed states.

 

• “Nuclear Risk Reduction: Closing Pathways to Use” is a report edited by Wilfred Wan and published by UNIDIR on April 20th, 2020. It brings together a collection of expert viewpoints on reducing the risk of nuclear weapons across various geopolitical regions. More specifically, this study outlines potential risk of use scenarios, identifies risk drivers and underlying conditions, and presents a series of policy recommendations to address individual risk profiles. APLN member Manpreet Sethi contributed to this study in a chapter titled “Nuclear Risks in Southern Asia: The Chain Conundrum.”

 

**If you would like the APLN Secretariat to include your recent activities in APLN’s future newsletters, please send us your published articles/publications to apln@apln.network.

 

References

 

•   A brief summary of Oliver Meier’s journal article,“Why Germany won’t build its own nuclear weapons and remains skeptical of a Eurodeterrent”, was published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on March 9, 2020. Meier states that arguments for German acquisition of nuclear weapons have gained no traction among German decision makers. However, several factors make it unlikely that Germany will support a Eurodeterrent anytime soon.

 

• In “The Scary State of Pakistan’s Many Nuclear Weapons”published by The National Interest, Caleb Larson brings to the attention the threat of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Although it is not as advanced and numerically intimidating as India’s, the real danger lies not in its destructivity but in how insecure and vulnerable it is to being taken over by Taliban insurgencies or militant groups. In addition, Pakistan does not adhere to a no-first-use nuclear policy, which calls for a more serious consideration of the Pakistani situation.

 

• On April 8th, 2020, 38 North published a short article on “North Korea’sSinpo South Shipyard: Probable Ejection Testing” written by Peter Makowsky and Jack Liu. The article looks at commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s sinpo south shipyard, which indicates that a probable dummy missile ejection test likely occurred in recent days. While the purpose of the test cannot be confirmed, it is likely for reliability testing.

 

•  “Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation” is a book written by James M. Acton published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on April 9th, 2020. It discusses the difficulties of distinguishing a nuclear weapon from a conventional one, and the growing dangers of misidentifying either, especially prior to its launch. Acton concludes with providing several recommendations on how to decrease ambiguity and increase cooperative risk-reduction measures.

 

• 38 North has published an article titled“North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Personnel Movement Continues Throughout the Site” by Frank Pabian, Jack Liu, and Peter Makowsky on April 10th, 2020. This article looks at the commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site, which shows personnel movement throughout the complex, including around previously abandoned areas. Foot and vehicle tracks are visible in the snow, despite the nature of their activities being unclear.

 

• The South China Morning Postpublished an article titled “Any New Nuclear Arms Talks Must Include China, Mike Pompeo Tells Russia” by Reuters on April 18th, 2020. During discussions regarding the next steps of the bilateral Strategic Security Dialogue, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that future arms control discussions must be based on Trump’s vision for a trilateral deal with China. China, whose arsenal of an estimated 300 nuclear weapons is far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, has rejected such talks.

 

•   Dmitri Simes wrote for Nikkei Asian Review on April 21st, 2020 “China-Russia Alliance on Horizon as Nuclear Arms Treaties Crumble”. This article informs on how the Trump Administration’s call for a trilateral deal with China as a requisite for New START extension would be met with hostility, especially from China whose nuclear arsenal is much smaller than the two superpowers. In the event that the New START not be extended, the United States would likely move towards deploying INF Treaty missiles in the Asian region, thus fueling cooperation between Russia and China, even in the form of a military alliance. The recent pandemic has not helped the already unstable situation as the inspections stipulated in the deal have been interrupted.

 

The APLN Secretariat wishes everyone well, and to stay safe. Please email us if you have any questions.

 

With warm regards,

The APLN Secretariat

Asia Pacific Leadership Network

102 Sajik-ro, Jongno-gu

Seoul, Republic of Korea (03169)

Tel: +82-2-2135-2170