APLN Newsletter (22 May 2020)
Dear APLN members and colleagues,
Greetings. We hope that everyone is keeping safe, and taking care. We send you good wishes alongside our biweekly newsletter with APLN’s Activities, Members’ Activities, and References to follow.
APLN’s Activities
Board of Directors Meeting
APLN will be hosting our Board of Directors meeting on Friday, May 29th, 2020 via an online conference call. The meeting is being planned for 5:00 P.M. KST. While the format of the Board of Directors meeting has changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, operational and structural items will be discussed. APLN’s next steps forward post-COVID-19 will also be an important topic to cover.
New Twitter Account!
As part of our continued efforts for public outreach and branding, APLN launched our official Twitter account. We will be using this platform—in addition to YouTube and website—to inform the public and policy-makers about important events, issues, and knowledge. We will also be sharing news, timely content, and APLN videos to engage and interact with others as much as possible. It seems more important now than ever, to stay connected through online means. We will be implementing best practices for Twitter by using hashtags and following leaders in the field.
If you have a Twitter account or have recommended accounts to follow that we are not already following, please let me know. Since APLN will be actively using this account, we kindly ask that you share our Twitter account with others. APLN’s Twitter account can be accessed here: APLN’s Twitter.
APLN’s Corner on the Korea Times
On May 13th, 2020, Sang-hyun Lee contributed to the Korea Times with his column, “North Korea’s Leadership Contingency and Nuclear Weapons,” for APLN’s Denuclearization and Peace Corner. Lee examines the past few weeks after false speculations on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un were made. The article addresses groundless rumors, and calls for efforts and measures to protect security interests in preparation for any sudden changes in North Korea. It is unclear whether further dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. will occur, but denuclearization negotiations must be continued for all stakeholders involved.
Members’ Activities
In the Deccan Herald, APLN member Manpreet Sethi analyzes the article published by the editor of Global Times Hu Xijin on May 9th, which discussed China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal. “Nuclear Numbers Game: What’s On China’s Mind?” reports four likely purposes for this kind of statement, and ends with a consideration of India’s possible buildup in response to it. The author reiterates that there are reasons for this to not pose great concern.
The Hindu published an op-ed written by Rakesh Sood on May 11th, 2020, titled “The Trends Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World.” Sood identifies six geopolitical trend-lines that will define the contours of the emerging global order: Asia ascending, U.S. waning, Intra-European fission, a rising China, fading organizations, and the energy factor. These trend-lines have existed prior to the spread of COVID-19. However, they are being accelerated by the “panic virus.”
Hwang Yong-soo’s responded to Beyond Parallel’s report on an alleged long-range missile manufacturing and testing facility located in Sil-li near Pyongyang in his article written for the Korea Times. Published on May 14th, 2020, “Time to Put Rumors Aside and Adopt Evidence-Based Approach to Denuclearizing Korean Peninsula”, provides counterarguments regarding the report’s speculations about the facility. The CSIS report suggests that the production of long-range missiles might occur in Sil-li, and simultaneously claims that the site’s high bay section could be used for testing as well. Hwang highlights that the assertions made are neither consistent with North Korea’s ICBM history nor strategic. He states that there is no clear evidence to support the argument that the facilities in Sil-li are for ICBM development and deployment, and that the approach to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula must be based on accurate facts and support from the greater community.
On May 15th, 2020, Manpreet Sethi was featured on South Asian Voices with “Accepting Mutual Vulnerability: What Nuclear Deterrence Teaches Us about COVID-19.” The article revisits deterrence, Cold War, and implications of expanding nuclear capabilities. It offers insight on the need to recognize mutual vulnerability and dependence, particularly in times of crises. Concepts of security may need to be reconsidered as the COVID-19 indicates that countries are interdependent in terms of both security and health.
Chung-in Moon’s interview with the Korea Times, “Korea Urged To Design New Foreign Policy, Security Strategies,” was featured on May 17th, 2020. This interview addresses questions on a post-Covid 19 pandemic world. Important issues, such as the impact of Covid-19 on the international order, national and global security, South Korea’s response to Covid-19, soft power and President Moon Jae-in’s Covid-19 diplomacy, rising U.S.-China tensions, an increasing nuclear arms race, and inter-Korean relations, are discussed.
In May 2020, NTI published a paper titled “The IAEA’s Safeguards System as the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Verification Mechanism,” written by Vladimir Kuchinov, Thomas Shea, and APLN member John Carlson. It explores how the IAEA safeguards system was created, its accomplishments and challenges, ongoing issues, and possible future directions. The authors argue that an enduring and effective safeguards system will be essential to achieving a nuclear-weapons-free world.
APLN member John Carlson authored a chapter titled “Legal Issues Relating to Risk and Systems Driven Verification” in Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification: Innovative Systems Concepts, published in March 2020 and edited by Irmgard Niemeyer, Mona Dreicer, and Gotthard Stein. Carlson argues that risk and systems driven verification will be an essential aspect of future verification missions which will be dealing with increasing degrees of uncertainty. The need for an effective approach to managing uncertainty should also focus on international interest and be reflected in the way new treaty regimes are developed.
References
On April 15th, 2020, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-proliferation (VCDNP) published a fact sheet titled “Material Out of Regulatory Control: Preventing Cross-Border Trafficking,” written by Ingrid Kirsten and Noah Mayhew. It highlights the benefits of nuclear technologies to detect the smuggling of nuclear material out of regulatory control (MORC). There is a delicate balance between the desire for shipments to reach their destinations in a timely fashion and the implementation of proper border monitoring practices.
On April 20th, 2020, Igor Ivanova of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace argued in “Rethinking International Security for a Post-Pandemic World” that the end of the coronavirus crisis presents an opportunity to reconsider how we think about security and global threats in the modern age. Just as the days after World War II presented a unique opportunity to build a new kind of world order, we might have opportunities to organize against our common foes—pandemics, poverty, and international violence.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) published an article on April 22nd, 2020, titled “The Environmental Legacy of Nuclear Weapons Production: Five Case Studies.” It features five nuclear weapons facilities in French Polynesia, the Marshall Islands, Australia, Russia, and the United Kingdom that have contaminated land and water with radioactive waste lasting for at least 100,000 years. Efforts to clean up the sites have cost billions of dollars over decades and are still largely unfinished.
On April 24th, 2020, the European Leadership Network published an article, titled “Have Iran’s Space Ambitions Taken a Worrisome New Turn?”, written by Fabian Hinz, a Research Associate of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). Iran successfully launched its first military satellite on April 22nd, and unveiled its parallel space program run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Corps (IRGC). While fears about Iran’s previous space launches have been vastly overblown, there are strong indications that Iran’s emerging IRGC track does indeed represent a hedging strategy aimed at acquiring long-range ballistic missile technology.
“COVID-19 Shows that the Biological Weapons Convention Must be Strengthened” is an article published on April 27th, 2020 by the European Leadership Network and written by Carlo Trezza. He offers analysis and policy recommendations for actions to be taken in light of the shortcomings that the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted, mostly in terms of international measures for biological and chemical verification mechanisms.
Ellie Geranmayer’s article for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “Avoiding the Clash Over The Iran Arms Embargo: How Europe Can Square the Circle,” appeared on April 28th, 2020. Geranmayer considers the role that France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have on the UN embargo issue in Iran, which is set to expire in October. Either choice in supporting the U.S. in extending or letting it expire will have implications for the JCPOA and the NPT.
In a May 6th article for the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, titled “Critiquing the State Department’s Nuclear Posture Clarification”, George Perkovitch criticizes the lack of clarity in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). He also argues that the reasoning in the NPR suggests that the United States possesses a surplus of thousands of high yield nuclear weapons which are unlikely to be necessary deterrents. Perkovitch argues that this offers promising potential as a nuclear negotiating chip in future arms control negotiations with Russia and China.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published Lawrence J. Korb’s article on May 8th, 2020, titled “Pandemic Spending Will Force US Defence Budget Cuts – Some of Which Should Come From Nuclear Weapons Programs,” where he provides reasons to expect a decline in U.S. military spending. He is agreed with by many experts and even those who support increased U.S. defense budget. He also recommends extending New START, and resolving the INF issues as a safe path to reduce spending on nuclear weapons, which is at the highest it has ever been.
“China Needs More Nuclear Warheads To Suppress U.S. Strategic Ambition” was redacted by Reuters and published by The Express Tribune on May 8th, 2020. Tensions have increased between China and the U.S. after the recent pandemic and the trade war, and the Communist Party now feels that China needs a bigger nuclear arsenal to counter American strategy, promising not to use them first but towards an effort to shape the American attitude.
In the South China Morning Post, Liu Zhen wrote “China Fires Its Latest Underwater Nuclear Missile into Spotlight with Science Prize,” published on May 12th, 2020. Researchers working on China’s submarine-launched nuclear missiles, the JL-3, have been recognized in China’s top science awards. Despite China not having officially confirmed the development of the JL-3, Zhen states that the Chinese navy has conducted testing, and that the JL-3 has a range far enough to hit the U.S. if it was launched from the Chinese coast. China’s progress in nuclear technologies is unknown, but the award nomination suggests significant research work has been completed.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published a document originally edited by the Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs on May 12th, 2020, titled “The Postponement of the NPT Review Conference. Antagonisms, Conflicts, and Nuclear Risks After the Pandemic.” It gives a thorough analysis considering the implications of the postponement of the NPT Review and of the coronavirus pandemic in general. The COVID-19 crisis has the potential to hinder progress in reducing nuclear risk by intensifying existing frictions, which is coupled with a possible economic crisis that can increase the risk of war. However, it also has the positive capacity to increase solidarity and cooperation among countries hit by the calamity. The article ends with a suggestion for an international monitoring system to avoid biological weapon spread in the future.
Julian Borger wrote an article, titled “World Nuclear Arms Spending Hit $73 Billon Last Year – Half of It by U.S.,” published by The Guardian on May 13th, 2020. The nine nuclear weapons states spent a total of $72.9 billion in 2019, a ten percent increase from the year before. Among that, $35.4 billion was spent by the Trump administration. Trump boosted funding for the U.S. nuclear arsenal, but cut expenditure on pandemic prevention.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peacepublished Chung Min Lee’s report “A Peninsula of Paradoxes: South Korean Public Opinion on Unification and Outside Powers” on May 13th. The report tackles the contradictions in South Korea’s inter-Korean and unification policies. Lee does so by explaining the historical reasons behind the conflicting pushes, and pairs them with the results from a survey conducted to gauge South Korean public opinion on this matter.
“How Do We Know The Nukes Still Work?” by Ryan F. Mandelbaum was published by Gizmodo Australia on May 15th. It traces the brief history of recent nuclear testing by the U.S. and how although the CTBT has not gone into effect yet, the U.S. has not detonated a nuclear weapon in 30 years. Praise is given on the Stockpile Stewardship program, which relies on supercomputing and simulations to deliver reliable data and prospects for new and aging arsenals. The article ends with a concern by Victor Reis, one of the program’s architects, on the durability of this strategy though new administrations.
Körber-Stiftung recently published the 2020 issue of The Berlin Pulse, which includes contributions from Ana Palacio, former Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Spain, Pascal Lamy, President of the Paris Peace Forum and former WTO Director General, and Karen Donfried, President of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The publication features various articles and surveys on German foreign policy in times of COVID-19.
APLN asks members and colleagues to send us your recent activites or references from your respective countries to share with all those involved. Please send us any updates or resources to our email address at apln@apln.network.
Thank you.
With warm regards,
The APLN Secretariat
Asia Pacific Leadership Network
102 Sajik-ro, Jongno-gu
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Tel: +82-2-2135-2170