THE TRIBUNE

APLN member Shyam Saran writes for The Tribune on the recent missile strikes between Iran and Israel, arguing that such a conflict could have severe consequences not only for Iran but also for neighbouring countries, including India, which may face disruptions to energy supplies and increased instability.

It may be noted that a wider war in the region will have relatively less impact on the US since it is no longer dependent on energy supplies from the region. It would be less worried about an Iran lashing out by attacking oil and gas facilities of the Gulf countries or blockading the Hormuz Straits, through which most of oil and gas supplies are exported to markets both in Europe and Asia. It would be prudent to plan for another era of very high oil prices. India will be seriously impacted.

Iran may be seriously weakened and face a debilitating economic crisis. Its proxies may also be weakened even if they are not neutralised. They will respond as such groups always do — by engaging in asymmetrical warfare. There will likely be an uptick in international terrorism. Even a weakened Iran may finally cross the nuclear threshold and acquire a nuclear arsenal despite the immense sacrifices this may entail. It will be convinced that it is only as a nuclear weapon state that it could ensure its survival. This could have a cascading effect in the region, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt choosing to embrace the nuclear option.

None of the countries of the region can escape a negative fallout from a war against Iran. They have tried to shield themselves by pretending that they do not have skin in the game, but they always did. If they had intervened early in the day to impose some penalty on Israel to stop its brutal war against Gaza and now in Lebanon, the trajectory of events may have been different. But their silence meant that Israel saw no downside to its aggressive policies.

We may be on the threshold of another major war and one on our western flank where nine or more million Indians live and work. Our energy supplies may be significantly disrupted. That India has so few levers to influence events in its strategically critical neighbourhood is a sobering thought.

Read the full article here.

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