Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government
EAST-WEST CENTER
APLN Senior Research Adviser Frank O’Donnell wrote for the East-West Center about the growing challenges Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs.
Finally, the India-US strategic partnership, as it has evolved under Modi, is facing growing critical scrutiny in Washington. Given their long-stated shared public rhetoric that the relationship is founded on mutual democratic values, the Modi government’s arresting and jailing of political opposition figures, crackdown on independent research institutions, and weakening civil liberties record has sparked rising criticism in the United States. Moreover, the alleged involvement of the Indian intelligence service in a 2022 attempt to assassinate a US citizen on American soil has led to robust demands by senior US officials for a prompt, thorough and transparent Indian investigation. Underlining the seriousness of this incident, US Secretary of State Blinken characterized it as representing “transnational repression,” a term normally reserved for China. India has reportedly merely only moved one official involved in the plot to a different part of its government, which has not allayed US concerns that India views such operations on the soil of close partners as its natural right as a rising power.
Moreover, the other, less publicly stated, foundation of the relationship—partnering to counter the rise of China—is suffering from Modi’s hesitancy. The Indian defense budget as a percentage of GDP has reached record lows during Modi’s tenure, and the Indian Army vice chief reported in 2018 that 68% of its arsenal is obsolete. Significant defense procurement reforms and military budget increases are required to demonstrate India’s commitment to regional and global security, and Modi remains strongly placed enough to push these through the bureaucracy.
As Modi contemplates what may be his last term as Prime Minister, the next five years will be crucial in how he decides to wield his still-substantial political capital. To be remembered as the Prime Minister who truly ensured India’s status as a “leading power,” his focused attention on the above foreign and security policy challenges will be critical.
The original article can be accessed here.